Inflation in Germany rose significantly in March compared to the previous month, bringing the European Central Bank’s monetary policy back into focus for financial markets. The latest data shows a noticeable increase in consumer prices both on a monthly and annual basis and could influence expectations regarding the ECB’s future interest rate path.

Strong increase on both monthly and annual basis

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 1.1%, following a rise of just 0.2% in the previous month. The harmonized monthly rate also climbed sharply, reaching 1.2% after previously standing at 0.4%.

A similar picture emerges on a yearly basis. The inflation rate rose to 2.7%, up from 1.9% in the previous month. The harmonized annual rate also increased significantly from 2.0% to 2.8%.

This means inflation has moved noticeably away from the previously more moderate levels and is once again above the European Central Bank’s target of 2.0%.

Energy prices could regain influence

A possible driver behind the increase in prices could be the recent rise in energy costs. Developments in the Persian Gulf and the associated uncertainties around oil supply have led to significantly higher oil and gas prices in recent weeks.

If this trend continues, energy prices could once again exert stronger upward pressure on inflation.

ECB faces difficult trade-off

The latest data could dampen expectations of further monetary easing. Interest rate cuts, which had recently been discussed more frequently, may now become less likely.

Instead, the European Central Bank may be forced to reassess its current stance and adopt a more cautious approach. In a persistently inflation-driven environment, discussions about a more restrictive policy stance – including the possibility of rate hikes – could regain relevance.

Markets react cautiously

Market reaction is likely to depend largely on how persistent the rise in inflation is perceived to be. While short-term fluctuations could still be interpreted as temporary, a sustained trend would increase pressure on monetary policy.

For stock markets, rising inflation expectations could act as a headwind, while the euro could find some support in such an environment.

In the foreign exchange market, however, a slightly different picture emerges. The euro is under pressure against the US dollar and has fallen below the 1.15 level. EUR/USD is currently trading at around 1.1483.

This development may suggest that market participants are not interpreting the rise in inflation solely as a signal for tighter monetary policy, but are also considering potential negative effects on economic growth.

Outlook: further data will be key

The coming weeks will show whether the current increase represents a one-off effect or the beginning of a new trend. In addition to further developments in energy prices, upcoming inflation data from the eurozone as well as key economic indicators will play an important role.

Overall, the environment remains uncertain. The combination of geopolitical risks and macroeconomic developments is likely to continue driving elevated volatility in financial markets.

US Indices Under Pressure – Dow Jones Leads Declines

US equity markets are trading lower ahead of the weekend. The Dow Jones is down around 1.2 percent, clearly underperforming the broader market. The S&P 500 is currently lower by roughly 0.67 percent, while the Nasdaq 100 shows a comparatively moderate decline of around 0.38 percent.

Risk appetite appears to be fading into the weekly close. With no dominant headline driving price action, positioning adjustments and cautious profit-taking near technical levels may explain the current weakness.

DAX Holds Steady Despite US Weakness

In contrast to Wall Street, Germany’s DAX is trading largely unchanged heading into the weekend. The index remains relatively stable and is not fully mirroring the negative US momentum. However, a clear directional move is still lacking, suggesting a broadly cautious tone across markets.

Gold Breaks Above $5,200 – Safe-Haven Demand Returns

As equities soften, gold is gaining traction. The precious metal has moved above the $5,200 level and is approaching resistance near $5,240. The move reinforces gold’s role as a traditional safe-haven asset during phases of rising uncertainty.

A sustained break above resistance could further improve the technical picture. However, with the weekend approaching, traders may remain cautious about chasing momentum at elevated levels.

Bitcoin Rejected Again at $69,000

In the crypto market, Bitcoin once again failed to break above the $69,000 level. The cryptocurrency is currently trading near $66,000, down roughly 1.9 percent on the session.

The repeated rejection confirms the relevance of the resistance zone, while support around $65,000 may come back into focus if downside pressure persists. Until a breakout occurs, the broader range-bound scenario remains intact.

Markets Turn Defensive into the Weekend

Overall, market positioning appears increasingly defensive ahead of the weekend. The pronounced weakness in the Dow Jones, combined with gold’s strength and the relative stability in European equities, suggests a temporary shift toward safer assets. Whether this develops into a broader risk-off phase will likely depend on fresh macroeconomic catalysts from the United States.

Financial markets are showing a mixed picture at the start of the week. While geopolitical developments continue to set the tone, upcoming inflation data is increasingly bringing macroeconomic factors back into focus.

Despite positive signals from Asia, European markets are trading slightly weaker after the open, pointing to an overall cautious stance among market participants.

Iran conflict: new dynamics and diplomatic signals

The situation in the Persian Gulf remains tense and has taken on a new dimension over the weekend. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have directly entered the conflict, launching ballistic missiles and drones toward southern Israel. The attacks were intercepted and caused no major damage.

At the same time, Iran continued smaller-scale missile activity. However, diplomatic signals are also emerging. Pakistan hosted a regional foreign ministers’ meeting on Sunday and has offered to facilitate direct talks between the US and Iran.

US President Donald Trump also expressed cautious optimism, referring to ongoing direct and indirect negotiations that could show progress. At the same time, the tone remains mixed, as economic pressure on Iran continues to be part of the broader strategy.

Iran itself is sending conflicting signals. While warning against Western information campaigns, larger military escalations have so far not materialized.

Oil prices remain at elevated levels

The ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are keeping oil prices at elevated levels. Despite slight declines at the start of the week, prices remain clearly above key levels.

US crude (WTI) is currently trading at around 99.05 USD per barrel, while Brent crude stands at approximately 107.10 USD. Compared to Friday’s close, there is still no clear sign of easing.

Stock markets react cautiously

The European stock markets are showing a mixed performance at the start of the week. The DAX initially opened higher in pre-market trading but turned slightly negative after the open and is currently down around 0.1%.

The French CAC 40 is somewhat more stable and is trading slightly in positive territory.

A look at US index futures points to a somewhat more positive opening. Futures on the Dow Jones are up around 0.40%, the S&P 500 gains about 0.45%, and the Nasdaq 100 is up roughly 0.43%.

US dollar stable, gold price and Bitcoin lack momentum

The US dollar remains stable at the start of the week and is gaining slightly against the euro and the British pound. EUR/USD is currently trading at around 1.1498, while GBP/USD is slightly weaker.

Against the Japanese yen, however, the US dollar is weaker, with USD/JPY currently trading at around 159.71.

The gold price is holding above the 4,500 USD level and is currently trading at around 4,525 USD per ounce.

Bitcoin continues to move sideways below the 70,000 USD level. At around 67,285 USD, the cryptocurrency remains within the range between 65,000 and 73,000 USD.

Outlook: geopolitics and data in focus

Market developments this week are likely to remain strongly influenced by geopolitical developments. At the same time, important macroeconomic data is moving back into focus.

At the beginning of the week, inflation data from Germany will be released, which could be relevant for the monetary policy outlook of the European Central Bank. On Friday, the US Non-Farm Payrolls will provide important insights into the labor market.

Overall, the market environment remains uncertain. New impulses – both from geopolitics and economic data – could trigger stronger movements at any time.

Positive Cues from Asia Support European Open

Positive signals from Asia are lending modest support to European markets at the start of trading. Both the Nikkei 225 and the Hang Seng Index closed higher, allowing the DAX to post slight gains in early dealings. However, there is little sign of strong follow-through momentum so far. Market participants point to the generally subdued environment and a cautious stance ahead of potential new economic signals from the United States.

Oil Price Shows Technical Rebound After Previous Losses

More noticeable movement can be observed in the energy market. The price of WTI Crude Oil is recovering by around 0.8 percent in early trading after coming under considerable pressure the previous day. The earlier weakness followed reports of a possible rapprochement in negotiations between the United States and Iran, which could, in the medium term, pave the way for an expansion in supply.

The current stabilization is likely to be interpreted initially as a technical rebound. Should diplomatic progress materialize — with another round of talks announced for next week — this could prompt a reassessment of the supply outlook and potentially increase volatility in the oil market.

EUR/USD Remains Within Established Trading Range

In the foreign exchange market, EUR/USD is trading back near the 1.18 level after previously testing support around 1.1775. The pair therefore remains within its established range for the time being. A more sustained directional move would likely require clearer signals regarding the economic divergence between the euro area and the United States and its implications for monetary policy expectations.

Gold and Bitcoin Continue to Lack Fresh Momentum

Gold prices remain confined to the range established earlier this week. The technical setup in Bitcoin also remains largely unchanged: after a recent attempt to approach resistance levels, the cryptocurrency is once again fluctuating within familiar boundaries, without generating fresh momentum so far.

Market Environment Stable but Lacking Impulses

Overall, the broader market environment appears stable but directionless. While the positive cues from Asia are providing some support, they have not yet been sufficient to trigger broader risk appetite. New impulses are therefore likely to depend primarily on upcoming economic data releases or monetary policy signals.

Despite the lack of new geopolitical developments, stock markets are coming under moderate pressure at the end of the week. While the situation in the Persian Gulf remains largely unchanged, macroeconomic factors are moving back into focus for market participants.

A possible trigger for the cautious weakness could be the latest inflation data from Spain. These show a noticeable increase in price pressures and could reignite concerns about interest rates.

Spanish CPI data raises rate concerns

The inflation data released this morning from Spain shows a clear increase. The annual inflation rate rises from 2.3% to 3.3%, while the monthly figure increases from 0.4% to 1.0%.

On their own, the data do not yet provide a clear signal of a sustained trend reversal. However, they could shift investor attention toward the upcoming inflation figures from Germany, which are due to be released on Monday.

Against the backdrop of recently stable inflation data in Germany, rising energy prices could once again create upward pressure. If this trend is confirmed, expectations for further rate cuts could be reduced, bringing the European Central Bank’s monetary policy back into sharper focus. In addition, higher consumer prices could weigh on consumption across the eurozone.

DAX records further losses

The pressure on stock markets is currently most visible in Germany’s benchmark index, the DAX. It is down around 227 points, or about 1.0%, trading near 23,350 points.

This leaves the DAX somewhat weaker than other European indices. Spain’s IBEX 35 is currently down around 0.63%, trading at approximately 16,850 points.

The French CAC 40 is also posting losses, though more moderate, down about 0.52% at around 7,729 points.

US dollar, gold price and Bitcoin lack clear direction

In the currency market, the US dollar remains largely stable. The EUR/USD pair continues to trade above the 1.15 level, signaling no clear directional move at the moment.

The gold price is also trading within a narrow range and remains below the 4,500 US dollar per ounce level. The lack of momentum highlights the current wait-and-see approach among market participants.

Bitcoin is slightly weaker and has fallen below the 68,000 US dollar mark this morning. Overall, the development suggests that the crypto market is also lacking a clear catalyst at the moment.

Outlook: focus on macroeconomic data

With no new impulses from geopolitics, attention is shifting back toward economic data. In particular, the upcoming inflation figures from Germany are likely to play a key role in the near-term market direction.

At the same time, the situation in the Persian Gulf remains a key risk factor. New developments could quickly trigger stronger market moves and bring the current relatively calm phase to an abrupt end.

Wall Street Opens Mixed

U.S. equities opened on a mixed note. Following a relatively quiet pre-market session, the broader market lacks clear directional catalysts, even though Nvidia’s latest earnings report delivered solid operational results. Positive signals from the semiconductor space appear largely priced in, with limited follow-through buying so far.

Dow Jones: marginally higher in early trading.

S&P 500: little changed.

Nasdaq 100: moderately firmer, supported by relative strength in technology stocks.

Market participants point to elevated valuation levels and stretched positioning in the AI segment, which could constrain additional upside momentum even if fundamentals among large-cap names remain solid. Nvidia’s results provided sector support but have yet to trigger a broader, sustained push higher.

Market Breadth

Market breadth remains balanced. Selected chipmakers trade steadily, while cyclical sectors show a mixed performance. Defensive segments such as utilities and consumer staples hold relatively firm, suggesting a still selective appetite for risk.

Within technology, crypto-related stocks draw attention. The performance of digital assets is increasingly viewed as a short-term sentiment gauge for more speculative corners of the market.

Precious Metals in Focus

As the chart illustrates, gold is approaching a technically significant support zone near $5,140. The move coincides with stable U.S. Treasury yields and a generally firm U.S. dollar environment.

A sustained break below this level could activate technically driven selling flows and prompt a reassessment of hedging strategies. Conversely, a successful defense of support would point to continued demand for defensive assets.

Crypto Market Watch

Bitcoin is once again approaching the $69,000 mark, testing a technically relevant resistance area. A sustained move above this threshold could lift risk appetite within the technology sector and activate momentum-driven strategies in the near term.

Should the cryptocurrency fail to clear this level, profit-taking may emerge and temporarily weigh on more volatile segments. Observers note that the correlation between Bitcoin and growth-oriented technology indices tends to increase during periods of elevated liquidity.

Macro & Rates Environment

On the macro front, no major surprises have emerged so far. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is moving only marginally, signaling no abrupt shift in rate expectations. The stable yield backdrop could provide near-term support for richly valued growth stocks, provided fresh inflation signals do not surface.

At the same time, investors appear increasingly focused on forward guidance and margin trends following the latest earnings season. Solid quarterly results alone seem insufficient to justify further multiple expansion.

Financial Sector in Focus

After the closing bell, Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Bank are scheduled to release quarterly results. Particular attention will be paid to net interest margin trends and potential signals regarding credit demand in the North American market.

Against a backdrop of a stabilized rate environment, the tone of forward guidance could prove pivotal. Any signs of slowing credit momentum would offer insights into the broader economic landscape.

Given elevated valuations in parts of the technology segment, even modest deviations from expectations could amplify market reactions if positioning is skewed.

Assessment

Overall, consolidation remains the dominant theme. Despite constructive corporate earnings, broader follow-through momentum is lacking, potentially pointing to a degree of saturation within the technology space. Bitcoin’s renewed test of resistance serves as a psychological barometer for speculative risk appetite and may indirectly influence technology-driven indices.

On Thursday, it once again becomes clear how strongly financial markets are currently influenced by the geopolitical situation. After three days of moderate recovery, sentiment is turning again, with growing pessimism regarding developments in the Persian Gulf.

While equities and metals are declining, the US dollar is strengthening and benefiting from rising uncertainty.

Oil prices rise back above key levels

After announcements of potential peace talks failed to deliver concrete progress and were even denied by Iran, concerns about crude oil supply are increasing again.

Following the sharp price decline at the beginning of the week, oil prices have been rising again since midweek and have reclaimed key levels.

WTI crude is now trading above the 90 US dollar mark at around 93.40 US dollars per barrel. Brent crude has also moved back above 100 US dollars and is currently trading at approximately 101.50 US dollars per barrel.

Rising oil prices weigh on stock markets

Higher oil prices, ongoing concerns about potential supply disruptions, and the lack of de-escalation are putting renewed pressure on equity markets.

After several days of recovery, indices are turning negative again following weak signals from Asia. The DAX is currently trading at around 22,625 points, down approximately 1.35%, falling clearly below the 23,000 mark once again.

The French CAC 40 is also declining, losing around 0.92% to approximately 7,774 points. Spain’s IBEX 35 is showing even greater weakness, down about 1.92% at roughly 16,995 points.

Gold under pressure

Gold is also coming under renewed pressure and is unable to hold the 4,500 US dollar level. Rising oil prices are supporting the US dollar, which is showing moderate strength.

A stronger US dollar typically weighs on gold prices. In addition, the increased demand for liquidity in falling markets may lead to further reductions in gold positions.

Bitcoin falls below 70,000 US dollars

Weakness is also continuing in cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has fallen back below the 70,000 US dollar level and is currently trading at around 69,400 US dollars, down approximately 3.1%.

Altcoins are showing even greater losses. Ethereum is down around 5.2% to approximately 2,072 US dollars, while Solana is declining by about 5.7% to around 87.64 US dollars.

This development highlights that cryptocurrencies are currently showing a stronger correlation with movements in traditional markets.

Outlook: high volatility likely to persist

In the weeks since the outbreak of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, a market dynamic has emerged that is difficult to assess. Even hints of potential negotiations can trigger short-term optimism, while a lack of progress quickly reverses sentiment.

As long as no lasting solution is in sight, volatility is likely to remain high, and the market environment will continue to be challenging for investors and traders.

The market continues to show no strong directional moves but presents itself overall friendly on Wednesday. The DAX is stable above the 25,000 point mark and currently records a slight gain of +0.13 %. The worse-than-expected GfK consumer climate (currently -24.9 points) has only little negative influence on the leading index. The US indices are behaving similarly and are slightly in positive territory pre-market. The focus today is clearly on Nvidia's after-hours quarterly figures. Here is a brief overview of the current situation.

Europe: DAX Holds 25,000 – GfK Disappoints, But Without Major Damage

The DAX continues to show itself robust and holds itself after yesterday's slight pullback again above the 25,000 point mark. The GfK consumer climate for March came in at -24.9 points worse than expected (forecast -23.5), indicating continued reluctance to buy among consumers. Nevertheless, the index remains stable – the slight recovery in automotive and technology stocks supports the development. The Euro Stoxx 50 is also slightly in the plus (+0.15 %). The European markets are waiting today for impulses from the USA, especially for the Nvidia numbers after the close on Wall Street.

USA Pre-Market Friendly – Nvidia in the Spotlight

The US futures point to a calm to slightly positive start: S&P 500 +0.12 %, Nasdaq +0.18 %, Dow Jones +0.08 %. The markets are digesting yesterday's mixed economic data and are focusing on Nvidia's after-hours quarterly figures (expected after 22:00 CET). Expectations are high: Analysts forecast sales growth of over 80 % compared to the previous year, driven by AI chip demand. A strong result could boost tech and Nasdaq stocks, while a disappointing result could exert pressure – especially on AI and semiconductor stocks.

Gold Stagnates Below 5,200 USD – Bitcoin Recovers Slightly

The gold price continues to fluctuate between 5,175 and 5,200 USD and has not yet been able to overcome the resistance at 5,200. The ongoing uncertainty around the tariff conflict with the USA and the mixed economic data keep gold stable as a safe haven, without generating new momentum. Bitcoin, on the other hand, shows a slight recovery: From the weekly low at 62,600 USD, it is currently just below 65,600 USD – a gain of around 1.5 % since yesterday evening. The mood in the crypto scene remains cautiously positive as long as no new regulatory news comes from the USA.

Conclusion

Wednesday begins calmly, but with a clear focus on the Nvidia figures after US market close. The DAX holds above 25,000, gold stagnates and Bitcoin recovers slightly. Traders should closely monitor the reaction to the Nvidia results – they could decisively influence the tech sector and thus also the Nasdaq. Until then, the market will probably remain in a waiting position.

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Financial markets are showing a more positive tone in the middle of the week. The prospect of a possible easing in the conflict with Iran is currently creating cautious optimism among market participants. While oil prices continue to decline, the US dollar is also weakening and equity markets are trending higher.

Oil prices continue to decline

A key factor behind the improved market sentiment is likely the development of oil prices. These have been gradually declining since the start of the week. US crude WTI is currently trading steadily below the 90 US dollar mark at around 88.10 US dollars per barrel.

Brent crude from the North Sea is also moving further away from the 100 US dollar level and is currently trading at approximately 95.60 US dollars per barrel.

Falling energy prices are generally seen as a relief for the economy, particularly for the manufacturing sector, which has recently been under pressure due to rising costs linked to geopolitical tensions.

Equity markets react positively

The easing in the oil market is also being reflected in equity markets. Asian markets already provided positive signals. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed up 2.82%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained around 1.09%.

Markets in Europe are also showing strength. The DAX is currently up around 1.32%, the CAC 40 is gaining approximately 1.21%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 is rising by about 1.25%.

US futures in positive territory

US futures are also showing gains in pre-market trading. Dow Jones futures are currently up around 0.77%, while S&P 500 futures are gaining approximately 0.75%. Nasdaq 100 futures are rising by about 0.95%.

This development suggests that US markets may initially follow the positive momentum from Europe and Asia.

Gold above 4,500 US dollars

Gold is also benefiting from the current market environment and has climbed back above the 4,500 US dollar per ounce level.

The precious metal may be supported by the weaker US dollar as well as a reduced demand for liquidity, following the recent stabilization in markets.

From a technical perspective, however, the area between 4,600 and 4,650 US dollars could come into focus as a potential resistance zone.

Bitcoin stabilizes above 70,000 US dollars

Cryptocurrencies are showing signs of stabilization after recent declines. Bitcoin is currently trading slightly higher, up around 0.05% at approximately 71,300 US dollars.

Ethereum is posting stronger gains, rising around 1.09% to about 2,184 US dollars. Solana is also among the stronger performers, gaining nearly 2% and trading at around 92.50 US dollars.

However, for a more sustained upward movement, market participants appear to be waiting for a clearer catalyst.

Outlook: optimism meets uncertainty

Markets appear to be pricing in at least the possibility of a more sustained easing in the geopolitical situation. This is reflected in the more positive sentiment seen during the week.

At the same time, the situation remains fragile. Even minor escalations in the Persian Gulf could quickly shift sentiment again and lead to renewed volatility in the markets.

The US Supreme Court ruling of February 20, 2026, caused considerable confusion and uncertainty in the markets. At its core, the court ruled in a 6:3 decision that President Trump exceeded his authority by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 to impose comprehensive tariffs. The IEEPA does not authorize the president to levy tariffs as taxes, as this power lies solely with Congress. The ruling affects not all tariffs from the Trump era, but primarily those imposed under the IEEPA, such as the 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, as well as the “reciprocal” tariffs on imports from nearly all countries. Other tariffs based on separate laws (e.g. on steel and aluminum under Section 232) remain unaffected.

Immediate Consequences of the Tariff Ruling

The immediate consequence is that the US Customs Service (Customs and Border Protection) has immediately ceased collecting these illegal tariffs. Estimates suggest that the affected tariffs alone generated over 142 billion US dollars in 2025. The question now is whether importers can apply for refunds – experts estimate possible refunds of up to 175 billion US dollars. In the long term, the ruling could create a hole of up to 2 trillion US dollars in expected tariff revenue, further fueling the budget deficit and raising questions about the financing of tax cuts and infrastructure.

Reactions of the US Government

Trump and the US administration reacted quickly: Just hours after the ruling, Trump announced that the tariffs would be reimposed under other laws. On February 21, he already issued a provisional 10 percent global import tax under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which he raised to 15 percent on February 23. Section 122 allows temporary tariffs for a maximum of 150 days to allow time for further negotiations or legislation. Trump praised the dissenting opinion of Justices Kavanaugh, Thomas and Alito, who considered his tariffs legal, and emphasized that there were “many methods, statutes and authorities” to continue his trade policy. The administration sees the ruling as confirmation of its line and does not rule out further steps, which further increases uncertainty.

EU Commission Suspends Tariff Agreement with the USA

On the international stage, the EU reacted promptly: The EU Commission has temporarily suspended the implementation of the tariff agreement with the USA, which had provided for a uniform 15 percent tariff rate. This decision has led to criticism from the business community: Industry associations fear that the trade conflict will flare up again and global supply chains will suffer. China's Ministry of Commerce has called on the USA to “lift all unilateral tariffs,” while countries such as India, Indonesia and Malaysia have put their recently concluded trade deals with the USA on hold or are reviewing them. Japan described the situation as a “real mess.” The general mood fluctuates between hope for negotiations and panic over a new trade war that could burden the global economy – especially at a time when inflation and growth risks are already high.

Overall, there is confusion because the ruling does not affect all tariffs and Trump is immediately pulling new levers. Markets are reacting volatilely: Gold benefits as a safe haven, the dollar and indices are suffering from the uncertainty. Medium-term, much depends on Congress's reaction: Will it approve new tariffs, or will an internal conflict break out? For traders and investors, the situation remains unpredictable, but the ruling signals that presidential power in trade policy has limits.

Financial markets showed a clear recovery at the start of the week. Comments from US President Donald Trump about possible talks with representatives of Iran and a potential end to hostilities boosted optimism among market participants on Monday. After major indices initially came under pressure during the day, they ultimately closed the session clearly in positive territory.

Cautious start in Europe despite positive signals

On Tuesday, however, trading in Europe is showing a more cautious tone. Although Asian markets are providing positive signals – Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up around 1.56%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is gaining about 2.74% – European indices are only benefiting to a limited extent.

The DAX is currently down around 0.30%, while the Euro Stoxx 50 is losing approximately 0.26%. France’s CAC 40 is trading close to the flat line and remains largely directionless.

The muted reaction may suggest that market participants are taking note of the recent statements, but still have doubts about a rapid de-escalation in the Persian Gulf.

US futures lack clear direction

A look at US index futures also paints a cautious picture. Dow Jones futures are currently down around 0.17%, while S&P 500 futures are losing approximately 0.15%.

The relatively small declines indicate that markets are not yet forming a clear trend and are weighing optimism about potential talks against ongoing uncertainty.

Oil prices move higher again

In the commodities market, oil prices are once again showing movement. After US crude WTI fell to around 83 US dollars per barrel the previous day, prices have now risen back above the 90 US dollar mark.

Brent crude from the North Sea is also moving higher, but remains below the 100 US dollar level, currently trading at around 98.30 US dollars per barrel.

Gold stabilizes as US dollar weakens

Gold prices are stabilizing following the recent recovery and are posting slight gains. The precious metal is currently up around 0.4%, trading near 4,460 US dollars per ounce.

Gold may be supported by a weaker US dollar. A softer dollar reduces the cost of commodities for buyers outside the dollar area and could also lower demand for US dollars in international trade, particularly in the energy sector.

Bitcoin recovers

Cryptocurrencies are also showing a more positive tone. Bitcoin is currently up around 3.72% and has climbed back above the 70,000 US dollar level, trading at approximately 71,095 US dollars.

Ethereum, which was the weakest major cryptocurrency the previous day, is also rebounding strongly after its recent losses and is up around 5.35% to approximately 2,158 US dollars. Among the strongest performers this morning is Solana, rising about 6.7% to around 91.93 US dollars.

Outlook: optimism meets skepticism

Markets remain influenced by hopes of potential talks in the Middle East. At the same time, the cautious development at the start of the week suggests that doubts about a quick resolution persist.

Market direction is therefore likely to depend heavily on new developments in the geopolitical situation. Even small signals of progress or setbacks in potential negotiations could have a noticeable short-term impact on market sentiment.

After the positive start to the week (gold stable above 5,100 USD, slight recovery in indices), the picture reversed again in the afternoon. US indices are building on the initial recovery and trading lower. Gold continues to rise and exceeds the 5,200 USD mark, while the US dollar in the EUR/USD pair is once again struggling with the 1.18 level. Here is a short update on the current developments.

Indices Fall Again After Recovery

The US indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq) were initially able to recover after the morning low, but have been giving back significantly since midday. The S&P 500 is currently around 0.6–0.8 % in the red, the Nasdaq even more so. The reason is the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the tariff ruling: Many market participants fear that the Trump administration will not accept the ruling and announce new measures. Export-oriented and cyclical stocks are suffering particularly. The initial stabilization overnight does not seem to hold – the market is waiting for clear signals from Washington.

Gold Price Breaks 5,200 USD

Gold continues to benefit from the uncertainty. The price rises above 5,200 USD and shows clear upward momentum. The combination of inflation fears (due to possible tariff effects) and the safe-haven function in uncertain times is driving the price. Technically, the 5,150–5,200 USD zone has been overcome; the next resistance is at 5,250–5,300 USD. As long as no signs of relaxation appear, gold remains the clear winner of the day.

US Dollar Struggles with the 1.18 Level

EUR/USD continues to trade just above 1.18, after the pair had risen more clearly overnight. The dollar shows mixed performance: Short-term it benefits from flight to “safe” currencies, medium-term the concern weighs on it that higher tariffs could slow US growth and force the Fed into a softer stance earlier. Volatility in the pair remains high – a break below 1.175 would strengthen the dollar further, a rise above 1.185 would signal relief.

Conclusion

The tariff ruling continues to act as an uncertainty factor. Gold remains the clear winner and is testing new highs, while risk assets (indices, Bitcoin) are coming under pressure again. The afternoon and evening could be decisive: New statements from Trump or the EU Commission could move the market significantly once more. Traders should closely monitor the news flow – especially the reaction at round levels (gold 5,200, EUR/USD 1.18).

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Financial markets are continuing their downward movement from Friday at the start of the new week. New threats against energy infrastructure in Iran are creating ongoing uncertainty and pushing crude oil prices higher.

Instead of signs of easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, threatened retaliatory actions by Iran are weighing on market sentiment. Oil prices are rising by around 2% at the start of the week. US crude WTI is trading again near the 100 US dollar per barrel mark, while Brent crude from the North Sea is climbing to around 108 US dollars.

Weak signals from Asia

Asian markets are providing clearly negative signals at the beginning of the week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is down around 3.35%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is falling by approximately 3.93%.

The weak performance reflects growing nervousness among market participants and suggests that European stock markets may also start the trading session under pressure.

Futures indicate a weak start in Europe

Pre-market trading already points to notable losses. DAX futures (June) are down around 1.95%, while CAC 40 futures (April) are losing about 2.10%. Euro Stoxx 50 futures (June) are also declining by roughly 1.70%.

This puts the 22,000-point level into focus for the DAX. If this important support level does not hold, downward pressure on the index could increase further.

US index futures are also trading lower in pre-market activity, although the declines are more moderate. Dow Jones futures are currently down around 0.55%, while S&P 500 futures are losing approximately 0.70%.

The comparatively smaller reaction may be due to the fact that the US economy is less dependent on oil imports, as the United States itself is one of the world’s largest oil producers.

Gold and silver under strong pressure

Gold prices remain under significant pressure. Rising oil prices, falling equity markets, and increased demand for the US dollar are weighing on the precious metal at the start of the week.

Gold is currently down around 7.4% and has fallen below the 4,300 US dollar level. If this level is broken sustainably, the area around 4,000 US dollars could become the next key zone for market participants.

Silver is showing even greater weakness. It is down around 10% and is currently trading just below 62 US dollars. Here, the 60 US dollar level is likely to be closely watched as an important support.

Crypto market also weaker

Cryptocurrencies are also unable to escape the negative market sentiment. Bitcoin has fallen back below the 70,000 US dollar mark and is currently trading around 68,350 US dollars, representing a decline of about 1.2%.

Ethereum is showing even more weakness, dropping around 3.4% to approximately 2,038 US dollars. This brings the psychologically important 2,000 US dollar level back into focus.

Outlook: geopolitics remains the key driver

Market developments this week are likely to remain heavily influenced by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. In particular, potential escalations involving energy infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz will remain in focus for investors.

At the same time, macroeconomic data should not be overlooked, as it may also influence market movements. In the current fragile environment, even individual headlines could be enough to significantly shift market direction in the short term.

The start of the week is dominated by the US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, which is unsettling market participants. Gold stabilizes above 5,100 USD as a result, while the US dollar, indices, and Bitcoin initially come under pressure. Bitcoin falls overnight to around 64,400 USD but shows signs of recovery. Here is an analysis of the market reactions and possible consequences.

US Supreme Court Tariff Ruling and Possible Consequences

The US Supreme Court ruling, declaring the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration unlawful, is interpreted by the market as a possible signal for a continuing or reigniting trade conflict. The possible consequences are diverse: Higher import prices could further fuel US inflation, reinforce the Fed's hawkish stance, and simultaneously increase growth concerns in export-dependent economies. For risk assets (stocks, Bitcoin), this is negative, while gold benefits as an inflation and uncertainty hedge. Oil prices show no strong reaction so far, indicating that the market does not yet see an immediate supply threat.

Reaction from Trump and US Administration

The US administration has so far commented on the ruling in a restrained manner. There are indications that the government sees the decision as confirmation of its trade policy and does not rule out further measures. Concrete announcements are still pending, but the rhetoric points to a continuation of the hard line. This increases uncertainty for global supply chains and puts pressure on the dollar as a “safe haven” – paradoxically, since higher tariffs could also burden the US economy in the long term. It remains to be seen, among other things, how the tariff agreement between the USA and the EU will continue. Will the uniform tariff of 15 % remain, or could the EU Commission aim to return to the old tariffs, which would reignite the trade conflict?

Gold Price Reacts with Gains

The gold price reacts classically: It rises above 5,100 USD and stabilizes there. The increase is driven by several factors: Inflation fears due to higher import prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and its function as a safe haven in uncertain times. Technically, gold has reclaimed the 5,000–5,100 USD zone. The next resistances are currently at 5,150–5,200 USD, with support in the 5,000–4,950 USD area. As long as the tariff topic remains present, gold could continue to benefit from it.

US Dollar and Indices Under Pressure After Ruling

The US dollar showed a mixed reaction. With the start of trading overnight, EUR/USD climbed above the 1.18 level, while indices recorded almost instant losses. Overnight, the indices stabilized, and currently they show slight signs of recovery. Short-term, the dollar could still benefit from flight to “safe” currencies, but medium-term, higher tariffs could slow growth and force the Fed into a softer stance – which would burden the dollar. The indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, DAX) declined pre-market, as higher import costs could pressure corporate profits. Export-oriented and cyclical sectors are particularly affected.

Bitcoin Takes Another Hit

Bitcoin recorded an overnight pullback to around 64,400 USD but recovered to about 65,700 USD. The reaction is typical for risk assets: Initial sell-off due to uncertainty, then stabilization once it becomes clear that no immediate escalation is imminent. Bitcoin remains volatile – a prolonged tariff crisis could strengthen the “digital gold” narrative, but short-term, risk aversion predominates.

Conclusion

The tariff ruling acts as a catalyst for uncertainty. Gold benefits as a classic safe haven, while risk assets (indices, Bitcoin) initially suffer. Medium-term, much depends on whether the administration sees the ruling as a blank check for further tariffs or whether negotiations take place. Traders should closely monitor the development of import prices, inflation expectations, and the Fed's response. Gold remains the most defensive play in this environment, while oil prices and Bitcoin are more dependent on geopolitical headlines.

Anyone who wants to follow prices live will find a neutral overview here of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets: To the Trading Platform Overview.

Financial markets are starting the final trading day of the week on a positive note. After the significant volatility of recent days, a stabilization is emerging, which could be attributed to the absence of further escalation in the Middle East and the resulting decline in oil prices.

In particular, the fact that a larger retaliation following the recent attacks on gas facilities has not materialized appears to be reducing risk perception among market participants, at least for now. Discussions about alternative transport routes between Saudi Arabia and Iraq may also have helped ease concerns about potential supply shortages in the oil market.

Oil prices decline significantly

The oil market is showing a clear reversal. Brent crude has fallen by around 10 US dollars per barrel from yesterday’s high and is currently trading at approximately 103.50 USD. US WTI crude is also declining and is now trading around 93 USD after testing the 100 USD level the previous day.

The decline suggests that part of the previously priced-in risk premium is being removed from the market.

Equity markets recover

The easing in the oil market is supporting equity indices. The DAX is currently up around 1.4%, or roughly 320 points, moving back above the 23,000 level. The Euro Stoxx 50 is also gaining around 1.3%, while the French CAC 40 is rising more moderately by about 0.9%.

US index futures are also pointing to a positive start, although gains remain more limited at around 0.25% on average. Technology stocks are comparatively weaker, which may be linked to recent developments surrounding Micron.

Gold stabilizes after sharp decline

After the sharp losses of the previous day, gold is stabilizing on Friday. The precious metal is currently trading within a range between 4,650 and 4,730 US dollars per ounce, entering a consolidation phase. In this range, a short-term resistance level could form.

Silver shows a similar pattern. After falling to around 65 US dollars, it is currently trading below the 74 US dollar level, which may act as resistance.

US dollar weakens

The US dollar is weakening following the decline in oil prices. One possible explanation could be reduced demand for the dollar, as it is closely linked to global energy trade.

The EUR/USD pair has moved clearly above the 1.15 level and is currently trading around 1.1575.

Bitcoin shows cautious recovery

The crypto market is also showing a slightly positive tone. Bitcoin is up around 1.7% to approximately 71,150 US dollars, making it one of the stronger performers among major cryptocurrencies.

Ethereum, by contrast, is rising more modestly by around 0.3% to about 2,166 US dollars. On a weekly basis, the picture is more mixed: while Ethereum is up around 3.4%, Bitcoin is slightly negative at around -0.5%.

Market outlook into the weekend

Markets are stabilizing toward the end of the week, as further escalation in the Middle East has so far not materialized. The decline in oil prices appears to be a key relief factor for equity markets.

At the same time, the environment remains fragile. New geopolitical developments could quickly trigger renewed volatility, leaving investors and traders in a challenging environment.

The FOMC meeting minutes from January 28, 2026, released yesterday evening, surprised the market with a significantly more hawkish tone than expected. The Fed emphasized ongoing inflation risks, described the economy as “solid,” and even discussed the possibility of a rate hike if inflation data continues to surprise to the upside. The immediate evening reaction was accordingly: the US dollar strengthened (EUR/USD down to 1.178), precious metals and indices declined. Overnight, however, the market reversed – EUR/USD climbed back toward the 1.18 level, gold above 5,000 USD, and indices recovered roughly half of the previous evening’s losses. Here are the details and initial assessment.

The Minutes: Hawkish and Open to Rate Hikes

Fed members continue to view inflation as too high and persistent, particularly in shelter and services. The economic outlook remains “solid,” and the labor market environment “balanced.” Notably: an explicit discussion of the possibility of a rate hike took place if data continues to surprise upward or inflation expectations rise. While the majority currently sees no need for such action, they stressed that the interest rate path remains “data-dependent” and “higher for longer” continues to be the guiding principle.

The market had hoped for somewhat softer language (e.g., earlier discussion of rate cuts). Instead, the dominant message is: no rush for cuts, with risks tilted toward the hawkish side. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows only ~45 % probability of a cut in June (previously ~50–55 %).

Evening Reaction: Dollar Strong, Risk Assets Under Pressure

The immediate reaction clearly reflected the shock of even mentioning a possible rate hike:

• EUR/USD fell to 1.178 (–0.5 %)
• DXY rose to 104.80 (+0.6 %)
• Gold fell back below the recently reclaimed 5,000 USD level (–1.2 %)
• S&P 500 –0.8 %, Nasdaq –1.1 %, DAX –0.7 % (after-hours)

Tech stocks and gold, which had been positioned for lower rates, were particularly affected. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.28 %.

Overnight Recovery – Technical Bounce & Ongoing Uncertainty as Drivers

Overnight the market reversed sharply: EUR/USD rose back toward the 1.18 level, gold above 5,000 USD, and indices recovered roughly half of the losses. Oil prices continued to rise (WTI +0.3 % to around 65 USD, Brent +0.3 % to 70 USD), indicating persistent geopolitical tensions. The most likely drivers of the recovery are a combination of:

• Technical Counter-Movement: After the strong evening sales, many markets were oversold. Short covering + technical buying at key support levels (gold 4,950–5,000, S&P 5,800–5,850) triggered a bounce.
• Ongoing Uncertainty in the Iran Crisis: Reports of indirect talks (via Oman and Qatar) briefly fueled optimism, but the crisis has not de-escalated. Rising oil prices show that the risk persists – gold continues to benefit as a safe haven despite the Fed’s hawkishness.
• ETF Inflows & Market Sentiment: Strong buying in gold ETFs (BlackRock, SPDR) supported the price, while indices remained volatile due to light liquidity overnight (Presidents' Day aftermath).

Outlook: Hawkish Fed and Geopolitical Uncertainty

The hawkish tone of the Fed remains dominant: As long as no clear growth risks or inflation declines are visible, “higher for longer” remains the guiding principle. The next Fed meeting (March) will be decisive – until then the dollar could stay strong and gold and indices volatile. The Iran crisis remains a wildcard – any new escalation could catapult gold higher immediately, with oil prices reinforcing the effect.

Anyone who wants to follow assets and their prices live will find a neutral overview here of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets: To the Trading Platform Overview.

Financial markets are under clear pressure at the start of trading. The DAX is currently down around 2.35%, falling below the 23,000-point level. The Euro Stoxx 50 is also losing about 2%, while US index futures are trading more moderately lower ahead of the open, down around 0.4% on average.

At the same time, other asset classes are also showing significant moves. Particularly notable is the sharp decline in gold, which has fallen to around 4,700 US dollars per ounce and even briefly dropped below this level.

Gold under pressure despite geopolitical risks

The decline in gold may appear unusual at first glance, as geopolitical tensions typically support the precious metal. However, in the current market environment, a different mechanism appears to be dominating.

On the one hand, fixed-income investments are once again attracting more attention from investors. Rising or stable government bond yields make interest-bearing assets more attractive compared to gold, which does not generate any yield.

On the other hand, the need for liquidity may be playing an important role. During periods of falling equity markets, positions are often reduced to build cash or offset losses elsewhere. This can lead to selling pressure in gold, even if geopolitical tensions remain elevated.

Dollar gains strength

The US dollar is strengthening again in the current environment. The EUR/USD pair has fallen below the 1.15 level and is currently trading around 1.146. A stronger dollar adds further pressure to gold, as the metal is priced in US dollars and becomes more expensive for buyers outside the dollar area.

Crypto market follows the weakness

Cryptocurrencies are also under pressure. Bitcoin is down around 5.3% and is once again approaching the 70,000 US dollar level. A break below this key support could potentially open the way toward 66,000. This suggests that digital assets are currently being perceived more as risk assets rather than as traditional safe havens.

ECB in market focus

Investor attention is also turning to monetary policy. The European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision later today. While major changes are not necessarily expected, market participants will focus on signals regarding the future policy path.

The combination of geopolitical risks and monetary policy uncertainty could further reinforce the cautious tone in markets.

Conclusion

Current market movements show a clear pattern: equities, gold, and cryptocurrencies are all under pressure at the same time, while the US dollar is gaining strength. This suggests that investors are increasingly building liquidity and reducing exposure to risk assets.

At the same time, the environment remains fragile. New impulses from monetary policy or geopolitical developments could quickly lead to another shift in market direction.

Today lacks major impulses: The US market is thinly traded, Asia largely closed (Lunar New Year). From 13:00 CET (7:00 ET), a series of less important data such as durable goods orders, building permits, capacity utilization etc. will be released – in sum they could cause slight movement, especially in combination with the FOMC meeting minutes at 20:00 CET (14:00 ET). Here is a summary of the expected data and an analysis of how the market could react to a hawkish, dovish or neutral FOMC protocol.

The Data from 13:00 CET – Potential for Small Surprises

The day in the US begins with a series of indicators that have relatively low individual impact but in sum shed light on the strength of the US economy. Here are the most important ones and their expectations:

• Durable Goods Orders (14:30 CET): Forecast -1.8 % m/m (previous month +5.3 %). Ex Transportation +0.3 % (previous month +0.4 %). Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air: previous month +0.4 %. A stronger decline could fuel growth concerns, a positive figure would underpin the Fed's „solid economy“ narrative.
• Building Permits (14:30 CET): Forecast 1,420 million (previous month NA). Housing Starts MoM +6.3 %. The real estate market is sensitive to interest rates – weak figures could fuel dovish Fed expectations.
• Capacity Utilization (15:15 CET): Forecast 76.5 % (previous month 76.3 %). Industrial Production (Jan): forecast NA. Higher utilization signals strength and could indicate inflationary pressure.

These data are normally „second tier“, but in the current directionless situation they could cumulatively cause movement: Weak figures fuel rate cut hopes, strong figures support the dollar and pressure risk assets. The market is currently in „wait-and-see mode“ until the FOMC minutes arrive.

The FOMC Minutes at 20:00 CET – The Main Event

The minutes of the January Fed meeting will be published tonight at 20:00 CET. The Fed held rates at 3.5–3.75 %, emphasized a „solid“ economy and paused the easing cycle. The market expects confirmation of the „higher for longer“ scenario, but with nuances: Discussions about the neutral rate, inflation spikes from tariffs and growth risks could color the tone dovish or hawkish. The CME FedWatch Tool shows ~90 % probability of hold in March, ~50 % for cut in June. The minutes will be scanned for hints whether the pause is long or short – especially ahead of the switch to Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair in May.

Analysis: How the Market Could React to Hawkish, Dovish or Neutral Minutes

Taking into account today's data (e.g. weak durable goods could amplify growth concerns, strong capacity utilization could indicate inflationary pressure), the minutes could move the market in three scenarios:

• Hawkish Minutes (e.g. „elevated inflation“, higher neutral rate, no quick cuts): Strengthens the US dollar (DXY +0.5–1 %), euro/USD could fall (below 1.18). Indices could come under pressure (S&P 500, Nasdaq) -0.5–1 %, DAX -0.3–0.7 % and gold below 5,000 USD, Bitcoin below 65,000 USD. Stronger US data today would reinforce this.
• Dovish Minutes (e.g. growth concerns, tariffs as „one-time“ impact, earlier cuts discussed): Risk-On – dollar could weaken (DXY -0.5 %), euro/USD +0.3–0.5 %. Indices +0.5–1 %, tech (Nasdaq) +1–1.5 %. Gold +50–100 USD, Bitcoin +2–4 %. Weak US data today would fuel this.
• Neutral Minutes (e.g. „balanced risks“, pause confirmed, no new signals): Little movement – market likely remains flat (indices ±0.2 %, dollar stable). Gold/Bitcoin continue to hover on direction search. The sum of today's data then decides the direction, but without surprises it remains directionless.

Conclusion

The market is likely to remain directionless until the FOMC minutes, but the sum of today's data could set small impulses. A hawkish Fed protocol could create pressure, a dovish one bring recovery. Anyone who wants to follow the assets and their prices live will find a neutral overview here of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets: To the Trading Platform Overview.

After a cautiously positive start to European trading, sentiment in financial markets deteriorated noticeably in the early afternoon. The trigger may have been new concrete threats from Iran against energy infrastructure in the Gulf region.

According to reports, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have called for the evacuation of several oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. The indications of potential attacks are increasing concerns about the stability of global energy supply and are causing noticeable movements in the markets.

Oil prices rise significantly

The reaction is particularly evident in the oil market. Brent crude has climbed back above the 100 US dollar level and is currently trading at around 106 US dollars per barrel, while US WTI has risen to approximately 98 US dollars. This suggests that a renewed risk premium for potential disruptions to production and transport chains is being priced in.

Equity markets turn negative

Rising oil prices and growing uncertainty are weighing on equity markets. The DAX has turned clearly negative and is currently down around 0.70%. In the US, major indices also opened weaker on Wednesday. The Dow Jones is currently down about 0.75%, the S&P 500 is losing around 0.45%, and the Nasdaq 100 is trading roughly 0.40% lower.

The development suggests that investors are increasingly pricing in risks to the global economy as well as higher costs resulting from rising energy prices.

US dollar shows limited reaction

In the foreign exchange market, the picture is more mixed. The US dollar only benefited briefly from the increased uncertainty and continues to trade above the 1.15 level against the euro.

The relatively muted reaction of the dollar may indicate that investors are not fully shifting into traditional safe-haven positions, but are instead building liquidity and reducing exposure across different asset classes.

Gold and cryptocurrencies also under pressure

Both traditional and alternative asset classes are showing weakness. Gold has fallen clearly below the 5,000 US dollar level and is currently trading at around 4,873 US dollars per ounce.

Bitcoin is also under pressure, dropping to around 71,200 US dollars, representing a decline of approximately 3.7%. This suggests that investors are currently increasing liquidity and reducing risk exposure.

Conclusion for market participants

The latest threats against energy infrastructure in the Middle East are leading to a clear reassessment in the markets. While oil prices are rising, equities, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies are coming under pressure at the same time.

At the same time, recent developments have shown that market movements can quickly reverse as news flow changes. For investors and traders, this creates a challenging environment in which short-term impulses are playing an increasingly important role.

Tuesday starts with mixed signals from Germany: While the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January exactly meets expectations, the ZEW economic expectations disappoint much more than feared. The euro and European indices give way slightly, while gold and Bitcoin hardly react. Here are the details and initial market assessment.

German CPI January: Exactly in the Target Corridor

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Germany in January stands at +0.1 % m/m and +2.1 % y/y, exactly in line with analyst forecasts. This keeps inflation in the eurozone's largest economy stable within the ECB's 2.0 % target range. After two months of slight declines, this is another indication of a controlled cooling without a strong drop in inflation. Shelter costs and services remain stubborn, which is likely to keep the ECB cautious. The euro showed little movement against the dollar after the figures (EUR/USD ~1.184), and the market reaction is correspondingly subdued.

ZEW Economic Expectations February: Strong Setback

Much more disappointing are the ZEW economic expectations for February. After a surprisingly strong 59.3 points in January (well above expectations), analysts had forecast a further rise to 65.8 points. In reality, there was a decline to just 58.3 points – even lower than the previous month. This is a clear damper on hopes for a quick recovery in the German economy. The index remains above the important 50-point mark (expansion), but the momentum is gone.

The market reaction is nevertheless subdued: The DAX initially reacted slightly positively after the CPI data, but threatens to turn after the ZEW figures and is giving back part of the moderate morning gains. It is currently still showing a small gain of 0.12 %. The euro is losing slightly against the dollar (EUR/USD at ~1.182). Cyclical sectors and bank stocks in particular are affected, while defensive titles (utilities, health) are holding up. The decline signals that investors continue to view the German economy with skepticism – despite the stable inflation data.

Market Reaction & Outlook

Today remains thinly traded: No major US data, Asia largely closed (Lunar New Year). The focus is therefore shifting completely to the FOMC meeting minutes expected tomorrow. A dovish tone (discussion of earlier rate cuts, growth concerns) could trigger risk-on and support the euro, European indices and gold. If the Fed remains hawkish, pressure on the euro and risky assets is likely to continue.

Gold continues to trade just above 5,000 USD, Bitcoin is hovering around 66,800–67,200 USD – both are waiting for the next impulse. Anyone who wants to follow the price developments live will find a neutral overview here of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets: To the Trading Platform Overview.

Financial markets appear to be reacting to new developments in the Middle East midweek. According to reports, the US Air Force has struck Iranian missile positions near the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly destroying key military infrastructure that had threatened shipping routes. Following the news, markets showed increased activity, which may indicate at least a temporary easing of tensions.

The reaction in the oil market is clearly reflected in the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil. The price of a barrel of US WTI crude fell overnight to a key support level around 91 US dollars and is currently trading near 92.50 USD. Brent crude also declined and is now trading below the 100 US dollar mark at around 99.50 USD.

Falling oil prices support equity markets

Falling oil prices are having a positive impact on the stock markets and major indices such as the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50. Lower energy costs reduce potential pressure on companies and the broader economy. A possible easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz may also alleviate concerns about disruptions in oil supply, which is reflected in improved market sentiment.

The DAX is trading around 0.60% higher after the market open, while the Euro Stoxx 50 is up approximately 0.94%. US index futures are also pointing higher ahead of the open, currently gaining around 0.65% on average.

However, further developments in equity markets may remain cautious. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is scheduled for 19:00 CET. While no change in rates is expected, market participants will focus on the accompanying statement and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during the press conference at 19:30 CET for clues about future monetary policy.

The press conference will be broadcast live and can be followed via the official Fed livestream.

Dollar weaker, gold remains under pressure

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar is showing slight weakness. The EUR/USD exchange rate has risen back above the 1.15 level. The reduced demand for the dollar may indicate that investors are currently seeking less hedging.

Meanwhile, gold remains weak and continues to struggle with the 5,000 US dollar per ounce level. Despite the geopolitical backdrop, the precious metal is not managing to sustainably benefit from its role as a safe haven.

Crypto market remains stable

The crypto market appears relatively unaffected by the latest developments. Bitcoin continues to attempt a sustained move above the 74,000 US dollar level. This suggests that the digital asset space remains largely detached from short-term movements in traditional markets.

Conclusion

Current market movements suggest that investors are interpreting the latest developments in the Middle East as at least temporarily easing. The decline in oil prices appears to be a key driver of the improved sentiment in equity markets.

At the same time, the environment remains fragile. Further geopolitical developments could quickly provide new impulses and reverse the current trend.

The market starts the week cautiously: Japan delivers a clear disappointment with Q4 GDP, European indices are slightly positive amid thin news flow, gold continues to hover around the 5,000 USD mark, and Bitcoin fails again at the 70,000 USD hurdle. The US market is closed today for Presidents' Day, China and large parts of Asia are closed all week for Lunar New Year. Here is a current overview.

Japan: Q4 GDP significantly below expectations – yen weaker, Nikkei slightly recovered

Japan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 2025 disappointed the markets this morning. After a decline of -2.6 % in the previous quarter (y/y), analysts had expected a strong rebound of +1.6 %. In reality, only +0.2 % was reported. Even in the quarter-on-quarter comparison (q/q), the real figure of +0.1 % was well below the expected +0.4 %.

The initial reaction was negative: The yen fell around -0.4 % against the US dollar and -0.35 % against the euro. The Nikkei 225 fell by up to -0.8 % in the first trading hour, but has since recovered slightly and is currently only -0.22 % down. The disappointing figures are fueling doubts about the strength of the Japanese economy and could put further pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) not to tighten its extremely loose monetary policy too quickly.

Europe: Thin news flow – slight gains, IBEX 35 stands out

Amid thin news flow, European indices are slightly positive this morning. DAX +0.2 %, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3 %, CAC 40 +0.25 %. The Spanish IBEX 35 is significantly stronger at currently +0.95 %. The euro is barely moving against the dollar (EUR/USD ~1.185), indicating a lack of impulses. The markets are waiting – the focus is on the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday.

Gold & Bitcoin: Searching for direction – 5,000 USD and 70,000 USD as key levels

Gold briefly fell below the 5,000 USD mark overnight but managed to recover and is currently trading just above it (~5,010–5,020 USD). The strong US dollar and persistently high real yields (10-year Treasury ~4.20–4.24 %) continue to weigh on the yellow metal. At the same time, geopolitical risks and long-term inflation concerns keep the price stable. A clear impulse is missing – many market participants are waiting for the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. A dovish tone could push gold back toward 5,100+ USD; a hawkish tone would increase the pressure.

Bitcoin is behaving similarly: On Sunday, another attempt was made to sustainably break above the 70,000 USD mark – it failed. BTC is currently trading at ~66,800–67,200 USD and is struggling with weak risk sentiment. The strong dollar and reduced rate cut expectations (June ~50 %) are exerting further pressure. Technically, 65,000 USD remains the next important support; a break below could trigger further sales. ETF inflows (BlackRock, Fidelity) are currently providing support, but without a new catalyst, the direction remains unclear.

Outlook: FOMC minutes on Wednesday as hoped-for impulse

Today and tomorrow the markets remain thinly traded: Presidents' Day in the US, Lunar New Year in China and parts of Asia. The next real impulses are not expected until Wednesday at the earliest – in particular the FOMC meeting minutes from the last Fed meeting. Dovish tones (e.g. discussion of earlier rate cuts, concerns about growth or inflation cooling) could trigger risk-on and support gold, stocks and crypto. A continued hawkish stance would further strengthen the dollar and put pressure on risky assets.

Until then, the market remains in „wait-and-see mode“. Anyone who wants to follow the prices live will find a neutral overview here of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets: To the Trading Platform Overview.

Financial markets are currently showing a relatively stable picture. After the sharp swings of the past week, many asset classes are moving within their established ranges. Oil prices remain elevated, the US dollar stays firm, and major equity indices are showing only moderate movements.

This cautious tone may also reflect the upcoming monetary policy decisions. Meetings of both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are scheduled in the coming days, which could lead many market participants to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

However, this apparent stability does not mean that nothing is happening beneath the surface. While broader markets are currently moving sideways, individual stocks are increasingly coming under pressure – a possible sign that investors are reassessing expectations.

Rheinmetall under pressure despite geopolitical backdrop

One example of this development is the stock of German defense company Rheinmetall, which is currently down around 2%. At first glance, this weakness may appear surprising, as geopolitical tensions are generally seen as supportive for the defense sector.

However, the price action could suggest that investors are reassessing expectations regarding future demand. The strong rally of recent years has been closely linked to rearmament driven by the war in Ukraine, which has been characterized by conventional land warfare.

The current geopolitical situation in the Persian Gulf, however, has a different structure, with risks to energy infrastructure and trade routes taking center stage. In such an environment, demand dynamics may be less clear, which could lead to a more cautious investor outlook.

Although the company operates across multiple defense segments, current market behavior may indicate that investors are shifting their expectations. In the view of many market participants, other aspects of modern conflicts are currently in focus, while demand visibility in certain segments appears less clear.

In addition, potential changes in the Ukraine conflict may also play a role. If the situation were to ease, expectations for future demand in certain equipment categories – which have recently driven much of the sector’s momentum – could also shift.

Winners and losers become more visible

The development in Rheinmetall highlights that market movements are increasingly becoming more selective. While major indices are stabilizing, individual stocks are reacting more sensitively to changes in the geopolitical environment and investor expectations.

Energy companies in particular continue to benefit from elevated oil prices, while sectors with high sensitivity to energy costs – such as airlines or parts of the industrial sector – are facing pressure.

This suggests that markets may currently be in a phase of differentiation. Instead of broad-based movements, the focus is shifting toward how geopolitical developments affect individual business models.

Conclusion

Even though major markets appear relatively stable at the moment, the environment remains challenging for investors. Current movements are increasingly shifting toward individual stocks, where expectations, perception, and geopolitical developments are being priced in more selectively.

For investors and traders, this could mean that stock selection is currently becoming more important than the overall market direction. Which sectors and companies may benefit from or be negatively affected by the current geopolitical situation is likely to become clearer in the coming days and weeks.

Today's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in slightly weaker than expected: Headline inflation +2.4 % y/y (forecast 2.5 %), m/m +0.2 % (forecast 0.3 %). Core CPI also slightly below estimates. At first glance, a clear dovish signal. Yet the market reaction is more than subdued: Indices barely moved, dollar only minimally weaker, gold and Bitcoin hardly give way. Why the CPI data seem to pass the markets without effect – and what could happen next.

CPI Figures in Detail – Slight Cooling, but Nothing Dramatic

The January CPI data show a further slight easing in consumer price increases:

• Headline CPI: +2.4 % y/y (expected 2.5 %)
• Headline m/m: +0.2 % (expected 0.3 %)
• Core CPI (ex food & energy): +3.3 % y/y (slightly below expectation)
• Core m/m: +0.2 % (also below forecast)

Especially core inflation is crucial for the Fed as it excludes volatile components. The decline is positive, but by no means dramatic enough to seriously question the Fed's „higher for longer“ stance. Shelter costs and services remain stubborn, keeping the Fed cautious.

Why the Markets Barely React

The reaction in the markets is surprisingly subdued despite dovish data:

• S&P 500 Futures +0.1 to +0.3 % (practically flat)
• Nasdaq Futures +0.2 to +0.4 % (slight recovery)
• 10-Year Yield -2 to -4 bp (only minimal decline)
• DXY -0.2 to -0.3 % (dollar barely gives way)
• Gold +0.4 to +0.6 % (slight bounce, remains below $5,000)
• Bitcoin +1 to +1.5 % (recovers somewhat, remains below $67,000)

There are several reasons for this seemingly indifferent reaction:

1. Data was already largely priced in
   Markets have been anticipating further inflation cooling for weeks. The January NFP beat was so strong that CPI figures are perceived more as confirmation of the trend – not as new, surprising information.
2. Fed remains „higher for longer“ dominant
   Even at 2.4 % headline, core inflation remains above 3 %. The Fed has communicated very clearly in recent weeks that it does not react to a single good CPI print. Probability for March cut <10 %, June ~50–55 %. This is not enough for a real rally.
3. Technical factors and sentiment
   Many indices are technically oversold after recent pullbacks → light short-covering buys, but no real risk-on impulse. Gold continues to fight the $5,000 mark as psychological resistance. Bitcoin suffers from the strong dollar and lack of new liquidity (ETF inflows moderate).
4. Waiting for next data & Fed
   The market is already looking at PPI (tomorrow) and the Fed meeting next week. As long as Powell & Co. do not explicitly turn dovish, sentiment remains cautious.

Triggers for a Reversal – What Could Really Turn the Market?

In the current situation, a real trend reversal could only be triggered by several clear signals – and the next few days offer very little potential for that:

• No major data tomorrow (Saturday) – market closed or extremely thinly traded, practically no new impulses.
• Monday (Presidents' Day) – US exchanges fully closed. At the same time, China and many Asian markets are largely or completely out of operation due to Lunar New Year – partly the whole week. Until Tuesday/Wednesday, hardly any movement or new catalysts are to be expected.
• First realistic impulse: FOMC minutes on Wednesday – the minutes of the last Fed meeting could provide the first concrete indications of the central bank's current stance. Dovish tones (e.g. discussion of earlier rate cuts, concerns about growth or inflation cooling) would be a strong trigger for recovery in indices, gold and crypto.
• Technical bounce opportunities – As long as important supports hold (gold ~$4,900, Bitcoin ~$65,000, S&P 500 ~6,800 points), technical short-covering alone could cause a temporary bounce – even without fundamental news.
• Geopolitical easing or surprises – Positive news from crisis regions (Ukraine/Middle East) or unexpected stimulus measures from China (even if the market is currently closed there) could trigger risk-on.

In short: The market is currently in a real „wait-and-see mode“ with very limited catalyst density. The next realistic impulses are likely to come only from Wednesday with the FOMC minutes – until then volatility remains high, but direction unclear. Technical supports and geopolitical developments are currently the only potential drivers for short-term movement.

Conclusion

The CPI data are „good enough“ to keep recession fears at bay, but „not good enough“ to properly reignite rate cut fantasy. This is likely the most plausible explanation for the absent reaction. The market remains in „wait-and-see mode“ – until Fed signals or technical supports give clear direction. Anyone who wants to follow current prices live will find a neutral overview here of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets: To the Trading Platform Overview.

Markets continue to be shaped by the crisis in the Persian Gulf at the start of the week. While many traditional asset classes remain under pressure or trade sideways in the current environment, cryptocurrencies are showing relative strength this morning. Ethereum is gaining about 7%, while Bitcoin is rising more moderately by just under 3%. Major altcoins such as Cardano are also recording strong gains.

The development suggests that some market participants are currently seeking short-term return opportunities in the crypto market, while other asset classes remain more strongly influenced by geopolitical risks and a firm US dollar.

Oil prices remain the key gauge of geopolitical risk

The oil market continues to be the most important driver of sentiment in financial markets. Ongoing tensions in the Persian Gulf mean that a geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in crude oil prices.

The North Sea benchmark Brent and the US benchmark WTI are currently fluctuating around the 100 US dollar per barrel level. Prices are rising moderately in early trading, suggesting that market participants continue to price in possible disruptions to key transport routes in the Middle East.

As long as tensions in the region persist, oil prices are likely to remain a key indicator of the overall risk environment in global markets.

Crypto market rises – altcoins outperform Bitcoin

Cryptocurrencies currently stand out as a notable exception in an otherwise mixed market environment. Bitcoin is up around 2.8% and is once again approaching the 73,500 US dollar level, where a short-term technical resistance appears to be forming.

The move is even more dynamic among several major altcoins. Ethereum is gaining around 6.6% and trading at 2,245.60 USD, while Solana, at 92.90 USD and up roughly 5%, is also among the stronger large cryptocurrencies.

The stronger performance of altcoins suggests that investors within the crypto market are once again seeking higher risk exposure. During phases when Bitcoin rises moderately, short-term capital flows often shift toward more volatile cryptocurrencies with greater upside potential.

Equity markets start the week cautiously

Equity markets are showing a cautious tone at the start of the week. European exchanges opened moderately higher, while US index futures are also trading slightly in positive territory.

However, moves remain limited so far, as many investors continue to monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East. Uncertainty about potential effects on energy prices and global supply chains means that larger risk exposures are currently being built only cautiously.

Dollar strengthens again – precious metals under pressure

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar is regaining some strength after the losses seen at the end of last week. The EUR/USD exchange rate is currently about 0.12% higher at around 1.1425. This trend could indicate that the U.S. dollar is further strengthening its position as a safe-haven currency in the current environment.

A stronger dollar is also weighing on several commodities. Gold is currently struggling with the psychologically important 5,000 US dollar per ounce level, while silver is falling more sharply and has dropped below the 80 US dollar mark.

Since precious metals are mostly traded in US dollars, they become more expensive for buyers outside the dollar area when the US currency strengthens. This can add short-term pressure on prices.

Conclusion

Markets remain heavily influenced by geopolitical risks at the start of the week. While oil prices and the US dollar benefit from the uncertainty, equity markets are so far showing only cautious stability.

The relative strength of the crypto market stands out in particular, with several major altcoins posting significant gains. Whether this trend continues or represents only a short-term capital rotation will likely depend on how both geopolitical developments in the Persian Gulf and the direction of the US dollar evolve in the coming trading days.

Yesterday the market gave back on a broad front, partly significantly: Indices lost heavily, gold fell back below 5,000 USD (now acting as temporary resistance), Bitcoin moved further away from the 70,000 USD mark, while the US dollar benefited slightly and consolidated below the 1.19 level (EUR/USD). This decline is no coincidence, but a reaction to the week's economic data and the resulting expectations for Fed policy. Here is a detailed overview of the causes, current situation and possible triggers for a reversal.

The Causes: Strong NFP Beat and CPI Expectations Put the Market Under Pressure

The trigger for yesterday's market decline lies mainly in the strong US labor market data (Nonfarm Payrolls) from Wednesday, which significantly exceeded expectations. Instead of the forecasted 66,000 new jobs, 130,000 were added, private payrolls even 172,000 (145 % above forecast), and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3 % (expected stable at 4.4 %). Hourly earnings rose 3.7 % YoY, slightly above expectation. These figures signal a robust labor market that reduces the likelihood of near-term Fed rate cuts. US Treasury yields rose (10-year to ~4.22–4.24 %), pressuring risk assets such as stocks, gold and crypto.

In addition, there are expectations for today's CPI data (Consumer Price Index). Analysts expect 0.3 % m/m and 2.5 % y/y, which would mean a slight cooling of inflation. However, if inflation comes out higher, it would cement the Fed's „higher for longer“ scenario and could support the selling pressure. The markets already anticipated yesterday that the Fed could keep rates higher for longer given stable inflation and strong labor market – this led to sector rotation: Tech and growth stocks weak, defensives (financials, energy) holding up better.

Geopolitical tensions (Ukraine, Middle East) and ongoing uncertainty from the recent government shutdown reinforce the pressure: Investors seek safety in Treasuries and the dollar, weighing on risk assets such as indices, gold and Bitcoin. Overall, the decline is a classic „good news is bad news“ reaction: Strong data = fewer rate cuts = higher yields = pressure on valuations.

Indices Give Back Heavily – Tech Under Pressure

The indices gave back clearly yesterday: The Dow Jones fell -1.2 % to around 49,800 points, the S&P 500 -1.5 % to below 6,900, the Nasdaq even -2.0 % to around 21,500. Losses are broad-based, with tech sectors (Nasdaq) most affected – growth stocks like NVIDIA or Tesla suffer from rising real yields, making their high valuations (P/E >30) less attractive. Europe followed (DAX -1.0 %, CAC 40 -1.2 %), Asia was mixed (Nikkei -0.5 %, Hang Seng +0.2 %). Pre-market shows a slight stabilization this morning, but without clear triggers, pressure could persist.

Gold Back Below 5,000 USD – Temporary Resistance

Gold suffered a flash crash yesterday and fell -3.08 % to 4,941 USD per ounce, below the psychologically important 5,000 USD mark. This morning it is hovering around ~4,950 USD, with 5,000 USD acting as temporary resistance. The strong dollar and higher yields make gold less attractive as a non-yielding asset. However, geopolitical risks and long-term inflation concerns keep the price stable – a dip below 4,900 USD could trigger further sales, but the market has reflexively bought dips recently.

Bitcoin Moves Further Away from 70,000 USD

Bitcoin lost -4 to -5 % yesterday and is currently trading at ~66,200 USD, significantly away from the 70,000 mark. The strong dollar and reduced rate cut expectations are weighing on crypto as a high-beta risk asset. Like gold, BTC reacts sensitively to real yields – higher yields make alternatives like bonds more attractive. Volatility remains high, a break below 65,000 USD could trigger further sales, but ETF inflows (BlackRock, Fidelity) are currently supporting the price.

US Dollar Benefits Slightly – Consolidation Below 1.19 on EUR/USD

The USD gained +0.8–1.0 % yesterday and is consolidating below 1.19 on EUR/USD (currently ~1.185). The strong NFP beat reduces the likelihood of a near-term rate cut (June now ~45–50 %), making the dollar more attractive as a carry-trade currency. Other currencies such as EUR, JPY and GBP are losing – the DXY rises to 98.5–99.0.

Triggers for a Reversal – What Could Turn the Market?

In the current situation, a reversal could only be triggered by several factors:

• Weaker CPI data today: If they come in below 2.5 % y/y, rate cut hopes rise again – dollar weaker, gold/indices stronger.
• Fed signals: Dovish comments from Fed members (e.g. Powell or Yellen) could calm the market and fuel rate cut bets.
• Geopolitical easing: Positive news from crisis regions such as Ukraine/Middle East (e.g. ceasefire) could trigger risk-on – indices/crypto up, gold down.
• Technical levels: Gold support at 4,900 USD holds, Bitcoin at 65,000 USD, S&P at 6,800 – a bounce from there could trigger buying. Sector rotation reverses: If tech valuations fall too low, value hunters buy in – Nasdaq could then lead.
• Global factors: Positive data from China (e.g. stimulus news) or Europe (ECB hints) could ease pressure. Long-term, the „higher for longer“ scenario remains dominant – a real reversal requires clear dovish signals.

Conclusion

Yesterday's decline is a reaction to strong NFP data and CPI expectations, which are dampening rate cut hopes. The dollar benefits, indices/gold/Bitcoin suffer – but revisions and geopolitical risks limit the sell-off. Triggers for reversal: Weaker CPI today, Fed signals or technical support. The market remains volatile – anyone who wants to follow the prices live will find a neutral overview here of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets: To the Trading Platform Overview.

Financial markets are mostly weaker at the end of the week. While geopolitical tensions related to the Iran crisis continue to create uncertainty, many asset classes are reacting with falling prices. Cryptocurrencies, however, currently stand out as a notable exception.

Crude oil is posting moderate gains amid the tense situation in the Middle East. Both the North Sea benchmark Brent and the US benchmark WTI are currently fluctuating around the 100 US dollar per barrel level. At the same time, equity markets are losing ground. The DAX and the Euro Stoxx 50 are currently trading around 1.00% lower, while US index futures are also down by an average of about 0.35% in pre-market trading.

Strong dollar weighs on several asset classes

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar continues to strengthen its role as a classic safe-haven asset. Against the euro, EUR/USD has fallen below the 1.15 level. The pair is currently down about 0.5% and trading at 1.1455. During periods of geopolitical uncertainty, capital often flows into the dollar as many investors view it as highly liquid and a traditional safe-haven currency.

A stronger dollar also affects other asset classes. Commodities such as gold or industrial metals are mostly traded in US dollars. When the dollar rises, these goods become more expensive for buyers outside the dollar area, which often leads to declining prices.

Equity markets can also suffer from a strong dollar. On the one hand, financing costs for companies outside the United States may increase. On the other hand, international capital flows are often redirected toward dollar-denominated assets. This dynamic could currently contribute to the pressure on indices such as the DAX or the Euro Stoxx 50.

Metals under pressure

While energy prices benefit from geopolitical risks, precious and industrial metals are currently under pressure. Gold is down about 0.6% and has fallen below the 5,100 US dollar per ounce level. Silver is declining even more sharply, losing around 2.6%.

Industrial metals are also showing weaker performance. Falling prices may indicate that market participants expect lower demand from the industrial sector. Such movements are often interpreted as a possible signal of weakening momentum in manufacturing.

Cryptocurrencies move higher

In contrast to many traditional asset classes, cryptocurrencies are currently showing strength. Bitcoin is up about 2.8%. Ethereum is also gaining around 2.6%, while Cardano is rising roughly 4.5%.

The reasons for this development are not entirely clear. However, it is possible that some market participants currently view cryptocurrencies as an alternative asset class amid the geopolitical environment, while equities and some commodities are facing increased pressure. In times of heightened uncertainty, capital often shifts between different asset classes.

Conclusion

The current market environment presents a mixed picture. While geopolitical risks support energy prices and put pressure on equity markets, precious and industrial metals are also losing value. At the same time, the US dollar and, somewhat unexpectedly, cryptocurrencies are benefiting.

Whether this development proves to be a short-term rotation or a more sustainable trend will likely depend on how both the geopolitical situation and expectations for the global economy evolve in the coming days.

Today's US labor market data (Nonfarm Payrolls) came in significantly stronger than expected: 130,000 new jobs (vs. 66,000 expected), private payrolls +172,000 (145 % above forecast), unemployment rate surprisingly dropped to 4.3 %. Nevertheless, the market reaction remains very muted: The US dollar gains clearly, indices give back moderately, gold and Bitcoin hold up remarkably stable. Is this unusual – or actually within the green zone? Here is a current assessment.

NFP Figures at a Glance

The January data clearly exceed expectations overall:

• Nonfarm Payrolls: +130,000 (expected +66,000)
• Private Payrolls: +172,000 (expected +70,000)
• Unemployment rate: 4.3 % (expected stable at 4.4 %)
• Hourly earnings: +3.7 % YoY (slightly above expectation)

The massive downward revisions of previously reported jobs (almost 900,000 fewer jobs than originally reported) relativize the beat, however. The monthly average in 2025 was only +15,000 instead of +49,000 – this shows: The labor market was weaker than thought. January appears as an exception, not as a new trend.

Market Reaction: Dollar Strong, Rest Muted

The US dollar (DXY +0.8–1.0 %) is the clear winner – higher rates for longer, real yields rising (10-year +10–12 bp to ~4.22–4.24 %). Indices give back moderately after the initial euphoria: S&P 500 -0.4 to -0.7 %, Nasdaq -0.8 to -1.1 %, Dow Jones Industrial holding up better. Gold remains just above $5,000 (currently ~$5,018–5,025), Bitcoin stagnates further at ~$66,200 (-4 to -5 %).

Why No Classic “Strong Data = Risk-Off” Reaction?

At first glance, the market reactions appear unusual, but several factors explain this unusually muted response:

• Revisions weigh heavier than the January beat: The market sees 2025 as weaker – January currently looks like an outlier, not a real trend reversal. Long-term this would be rather dovish if not confirmed next month.
• Geopolitics & Safe-Haven Buying: Ukraine, Middle East, Taiwan concerns keep gold stable as a hedge. Dips are reflexively bought.
• Technical Support at Gold: $5,000 is a gigantic round number + massive call wall (options strikes). Gamma support and institutional buying catch the decline.
• Crypto as High-Beta Suffers More: BTC reacts more sensitively to rising real yields and dollar strength – no yield, high risk → clear decline.
• Fed Remains “Higher for Longer”: Rate cut probability for June drops to ~45–50 %. This pressures tech/rate-sensitive sectors, but supports banks/financials (sector rotation).

Conclusion

The reaction to the strong NFP beat is unusually muted: The US dollar benefits clearly, indices give back moderately, gold and Bitcoin hold up remarkably stable. This is due to the massive revisions (2025 weaker than thought), geopolitical uncertainty and technical factors at gold. The market does not seem to rate January as a new trend – rather as an outlier in an overall cooling environment. Until the CPI data on Friday, much will likely remain in “waiting mode”. Anyone who wants to follow the current prices and further developments live will find a neutral overview here of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets: To the Trading Platform Overview.

An attack on a tanker off the Iraqi coast initially caused nervousness in financial markets overnight. As seen in several incidents in the Persian Gulf in recent weeks, a now familiar pattern emerged: oil prices jumped sharply in the short term, stock indices came under pressure and traditional safe-haven assets such as gold moved higher.

However, only a few hours later a counter-move began. As no further signs of escalation emerged, markets calmed again, risk assets recovered and part of the initial price movements was reversed.

Oil prices initially react strongly

The most immediate reaction occurred in the energy market. The price of a barrel of the US benchmark WTI briefly climbed to nearly 95 US dollars overnight, while the North Sea benchmark Brent also moved significantly higher.

In the meantime, however, the situation has calmed again. WTI is currently trading at around 91 dollars per barrel, noticeably below the overnight highs. Brent has also given back part of its gains. The development suggests that traders are pricing in a higher short-term risk of possible disruptions to oil supply, but tend to reassess this view quickly when an immediate escalation fails to materialize.

Stock markets recover after the initial shock

A similar pattern can be seen in equity markets. After the first reports of the attack, major indices initially came under pressure as investors reacted to potential risks for energy supply and the global economy.

As the immediate uncertainty eased, however, markets began to recover. Many market participants appear to price in geopolitical headlines cautiously at first before reassessing the actual economic implications. Germany’s benchmark DAX started the trading day almost unchanged and is currently showing a slight decline of around 58 points.

Dollar gains – gold remains stable

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar posted moderate gains, benefiting from its role as a traditional reserve and safe-haven currency. During periods of geopolitical uncertainty, capital often flows into the dollar, which can provide short-term support for the greenback.

Meanwhile, gold prices remain stable at elevated levels. Although a stronger US dollar typically acts as a headwind for gold, the precious metal managed to hold on to part of its recent gains. This suggests that some investors continue to seek protection against geopolitical risks.

Later in the day, US economic data could provide additional impulses. Weekly initial jobless claims will be released at 13:30. Following the recently weaker labor market data, investors are paying close attention to whether further signs of cooling in the US labor market might emerge. The labor market is considered one of the most important indicators for interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve.

Conclusion

The latest market movements once again highlight how sensitively investors react to geopolitical headlines. At the same time, they also show that such reactions are often short-lived.

Markets tend to react reflexively to new risks before traders and investors more carefully assess the actual implications for supply, demand and the broader economy. As long as individual incidents do not lead to a sustained escalation, many of these movements may remain temporary. For investors and traders, this currently creates a rather challenging market environment.

The market is showing a mixed picture this morning: Asia closes with clear gains (Nikkei +2.2 %), Europe is trending negative despite positive lead (DAX -0.32 %, CAC 40 -0.41 %), and US indices are moving rather sideways in pre-market. The focus is on the postponed NFP data at 14:30 CET – until then, much remains in waiting mode. Here is a current overview.

Asia Closes Strongly Positive

The Asian markets ended the week with clear gains: The Nikkei 225 rises +2.2 % and marks new highs, supported by the ongoing “Takaichi-Trade” sentiment following the government party's election victory. The Hang Seng gains moderately +0.31 %, Shanghai Composite +0.49 %. Sentiment in Asia remains risk-on, driven by reform hopes in Japan and slight recovery in China. This actually sets positive lead for Europe and the US.

Europe Turns Negative

Despite the strong Asia lead, Europe is trending negative: The DAX loses -0.32 %, the CAC 40 -0.41 %, the Euro Stoxx 50 is also weakening. Sentiment is subdued – the weak dollar (EUR/USD at 1.191) helps exporters only to a limited extent, while the markets wait for the NFP data. Sector rotation visible: Tech and cyclicals weak, defensive (utilities, health) holding up better. The market does not seem to really buy the Asia gains – uncertainty ahead of the US labor market data is too great.

US Futures Sideways to Slightly Negative Before NFP

US futures are showing rather flat to slightly negative in pre-market: S&P 500 Futures -0.1 to -0.3 %, Dow Futures slightly positive or neutral, Nasdaq weaker. The market is nervously waiting for the NFP data (postponed due to shutdown, expected 70,000 new jobs, unemployment rate stable). A stronger than expected report could support the dollar and further pressure tech; weaker than expected would fuel rate cut hopes. Until 14:30 CET, much remains in “waiting mode”.

Possible Triggers for the Eventless Morning

In a flat market, it is worth working out the possible triggers: The weak dollar supports gold and exporters, but yesterday's weak retail sales (0.0 % instead of +0.4 %) signal cooling – this could favor rate cuts. Sector rotation (tech weak, defensive stronger) and NFP expectation keep the market in check. A breakout up or down is only likely after 14:30 CET.

Conclusion

The market is mixed this morning: Asia strong, Europe weak, US pre-market flat – all are waiting for the NFP data. The coming hours could remain eventless but offer opportunities to work out triggers such as rate cut hopes or sector rotation. Anyone who wants to follow all prices live will find a neutral overview here of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets: To the Trading Platform Overview.

After Tuesday’s strong rebound, financial markets are already showing signs of caution again on Wednesday morning. Following the stabilization in oil prices after their spike at the start of the week, which allowed equity indices to move higher, a certain degree of sobering sentiment now appears to be setting in.

On Monday, the price of WTI crude temporarily reached a high of around 113 US dollars. It has since calmed considerably and is currently trading at about 85 US dollars per barrel – even slightly below last week’s level.

New doubts about a quick de-escalation

One possible reason for the more cautious mood could be that hopes for a quick end to the military confrontation involving Iran may have been overly optimistic. Statements earlier this week suggesting that the war was practically over had initially brought significant relief to the markets.

However, new reports about possible military activity in the Persian Gulf are now creating renewed uncertainty. Reports about an attempt to mine the Strait of Hormuz could point to a potential escalation in this key oil transit region.

Any disruption of this central trade route would significantly affect crude oil supply and could therefore also have consequences for the global economy.

DAX opens weaker

Against this backdrop, European stock markets are starting the session on a weaker note. The DAX is currently down about 1.05 percent, falling clearly back below the 24,000-point mark.

The Euro Stoxx 50 is also declining, currently losing around 43 points, or roughly 0.75 percent.

Economic data are providing little support. The consumer price index (CPI) released in the morning came in at 1.9 percent, in line with expectations and therefore offering no new impulse for the markets.

Dollar slightly stronger, gold eases

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar is showing modest strength. The dollar index is currently up about 0.11 percent. Nevertheless, the EUR/USD pair continues to hold above the 1.16 level.

Gold prices are edging lower in early trading and are currently around 5,190 US dollars per ounce, representing a decline of just under one percent.

The cryptocurrency market is also showing limited movement so far. Bitcoin continues to trade near the upper boundary of its recently established range, currently around 69,600 US dollars.

Conclusion

After the strong rebound seen the previous day, markets appear to be entering a phase of consolidation. Renewed geopolitical uncertainty in the Persian Gulf may currently be prompting investors to act more cautiously.

Whether this represents merely a short pause or a renewed shift in market direction will likely continue to depend heavily on further developments in the geopolitical situation.

The gold price continues to hover just above the $5,000 mark today but has so far failed to benefit from weak US retail sales. The Dow Jones has marked a new all-time high (ATH), the S&P 500 is moving just below 7,000, while the Nasdaq cannot follow the trend. Bitcoin continues to fight around the $70,000 mark. Here is a current overview of market developments on Tuesday.

Gold Price: Weak Dollar Helps, Retail Sales Disappoint

Gold is trading today at around $5,036 per ounce and is holding just above the psychologically important $5,000 mark. The weak US dollar (DXY at approx. 98.5, EUR/USD at 1.191) is supporting the price, as gold becomes more attractive as a dollar-denominated asset due to dollar weakness. However, gold has so far failed to benefit from the weak US retail sales: These stagnated in December at 0.0 % (expected +0.4 %, previous month +0.6 %). This indicates a cooling consumer demand, which would normally increase expectations of rate cuts and support the gold price. The market is now waiting for tomorrow's US labor market data (Non Farm Payrolls) and the CPI figures on Friday.

Indices: Dow at New ATH, S&P Just Below 7,000, Nasdaq Weak

The Dow Jones has marked a new all-time high at 50,512.79 points and is showing strength despite weak retail data. The S&P 500 is moving just below 7,000 at 6,977 points and remains stable at a high level. The Nasdaq, however, cannot follow the trend and is trading weaker (approx. -0.3 %). The mixed reaction indicates sector rotation: Tech weak, defensive (financials, energy) stronger. The markets are waiting for further US data to assess the further course of Fed monetary policy.

Bitcoin: Fight for the $70,000 Mark

Bitcoin is currently moving at $69,216 and continues to fight around the $70,000 mark, which has so far not been sustainably overcome. The price has fluctuated strongly in recent days, but is benefiting from risk appetite in the indices. Nevertheless, volatility remains high, and a break below $68,000 could trigger further sales. Like gold, Bitcoin is reacting to the weak dollar but is waiting for clear Fed signals.

Conclusion

The market is showing a mixed reaction today: Gold is holding thanks to a weak dollar, indices partly at ATH, Bitcoin in the range. Weak retail sales could favor rate cuts, but the next data (NFP, CPI) will be decisive. Anyone who wants to follow the prices live will find a neutral overview here of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets: To the Trading Platform Overview.

International financial markets are showing signs of relief amid possible indications of easing tensions in the conflict with Iran. This reaction is particularly visible in the energy market: oil prices have plunged sharply since yesterday’s daily high.

Oil price loses around 30 percent from daily high

The price of crude oil has now fallen back to the level seen last Friday. From yesterday’s high, this corresponds to a decline of around 32 US dollars, or nearly 30 percent.

The trigger for the sharp move was growing optimism that a blockade of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz might be off the table for the time being. Market participants point out that the Iranian navy appears to have been largely neutralized following the recent military confrontations.

Additional support for this assessment came from statements by the US president, who said the war in Iran was “almost over.”

Relief in the energy market supports stock markets

The sharp drop in energy prices also helped stabilize stock markets. Lower oil prices are often seen as positive for many companies, as they reduce production and transportation costs or at least prevent further increases.

At the same time, a possible de-escalation in the Middle East could ease concerns about disrupted supply chains. These factors already contributed to a clear recovery in equity markets yesterday evening.

Several major indices were able to largely recover their losses from early trading.

Positive signals from Asia and rising futures

Market signals from Asian trading are also clearly positive. Japan’s benchmark index, the Nikkei 225, ended the session up exactly 3.0 percent, or 1,579 points.

In Europe, futures also point to a friendly start to the trading day. DAX futures are up around 1.68 percent in pre-market trading.

In the United States, the gains in index futures are somewhat more moderate. They are currently trading about 0.2 percent higher on average. The reason is that US indices had already recovered significantly during late trading in the previous session.

Weaker dollar supports gold price

Alongside the recovery in equity markets, the US dollar is trading slightly weaker. The EUR/USD currency pair has climbed back above the 1.16 level.

Gold is benefiting from this development. The precious metal is currently up around 1.6 percent, trading at roughly 5,185 US dollars per troy ounce.

The cryptocurrency market is also in focus. Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold,” is once again testing the 70,000 US dollar level after failing to sustain a breakout above this threshold in recent trading.

Conclusion

The easing tensions in the Persian Gulf and the prospect of a possible end to the military conflict are allowing markets to breathe a sigh of relief since yesterday. This could create the opportunity for a more sustainable recovery in global stock markets.

At the same time, the situation remains fragile. Even the perception of renewed escalation could trigger significant reactions in financial markets once again.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has left all key interest rates unchanged as expected. The deposit facility rate remains at 2.00 %, the main refinancing operations rate at 2.15 % and the marginal lending facility rate at 2.40 %. This is already the fifth rate pause in a row since summer 2025.

Statement and Lagarde Press Conference – No New Signals

The ECB statement reads verbatim: “The interest rate on the deposit facility and the interest rates on the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will remain unchanged at 2.00 %, 2.15 % and 2.40 % respectively.”

Christine Lagarde again emphasized the **data-dependent stance** of the ECB in the press conference: No fixed commitments to rate cuts, but “meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent”. Inflation is expected to stabilize around the 2 % target in the medium term, and risks to the outlook are “more or less balanced”.

Implications for the Euro – Stable but Under Observation

The euro shows only minimal movement after the decision and the press conference and remains stable around 1.1840–1.1870 (EUR/USD). Key points regarding the euro's development:

• Lagarde again emphasized that the ECB **has no exchange rate target** (“we have no exchange rate target”).
• However, the strong euro is being closely monitored (“we keep a close eye on FX, we discussed FX today”), as it dampens inflation and additionally burdens the economy.
• No indication of active intervention – the euro is not described as “too strong”, but as one factor among several.
• The market interprets this as “steady for longer” without new hawkish escalation → no major euro boost, but also no devaluation panic.

In the short term, the euro therefore remains in a narrow range (1.18–1.19) as long as no new impulses (US data tomorrow, geopolitical situation) emerge.

Overall Market Reaction Muted

DAX and Euro Stoxx 50 are slightly higher (+0.3 to +0.6 %), Bund yields are falling slightly. Gold is stabilizing around $4,900–4,950. No volatility spike – the rate pause was expected, and Lagarde gave no new indications of imminent easing.

Conclusion

The ECB remains cautious: Rates unchanged, the further course is data-dependent and there is no exchange rate target. The euro remains stable but continues to be closely monitored. The markets take this as confirmation of the “higher for longer” course – without major surprise. Anyone who wants to follow further developments and current market prices live will find a neutral overview here of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets: To the Trading Platform Overview.

Oil prices rose above the $100 per barrel mark at the start of the week. The move is causing nervousness in financial markets. Major indices in Asia came under pressure, and the trend is continuing in Europe. Just minutes after trading began, Germany’s benchmark DAX index fell below the 23,000-point mark.

Oil prices rise after attack on Iranian oil infrastructure

The latest market movements are being driven by rising oil prices. The background could be geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following reports that Iranian oil infrastructure was attacked by Israel.

Crude oil prices reacted sharply at the start of the week. The US benchmark WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is currently trading at around $101 per barrel. Brent crude from the North Sea has climbed to about $107.

Rising energy prices are often seen as a risk factor in financial markets because they could fuel inflation and weigh on economic growth.

Asian markets fall sharply

The biggest losses at the start of the week were seen in Asia. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 closed down 5.24 percent, or roughly 2,913 points.

Investors had already reacted during the Asian session to the geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices.

Losses continue in Europe

Negative sentiment is also continuing in Europe at the start of trading. Germany’s benchmark DAX index is currently down around 2.6 percent and has fallen below the 23,000-point mark.

Markets are not only being weighed down by rising energy prices. Weak economic data from Germany are also adding pressure. According to the latest figures, German industrial orders fell by 11.1 percent, significantly more than expected. Economists had anticipated a decline of “only” 4.2 percent. In addition, the previous month’s figures were revised downward by 1.2 percent.

The data are considered an important indicator for economic developments in Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone.

The European benchmark index Euro Stoxx 50 is also currently trading about 2.9 percent lower.

US futures show more moderate losses

Pre-market signals from the United States are somewhat less negative. Futures on major US indices are currently down around 1.5 percent.

This suggests that while market participants are reacting to rising energy prices, they are initially taking a more differentiated view of the situation.

Gold stable – US dollar firmer – Bitcoin returns to downward channel

While stock markets are under pressure, the gold price remains relatively stable. The precious metal is still trading around $5,100.

At the same time, the US dollar is showing strength. The EUR/USD exchange rate is currently stabilizing around 1.15. A stronger dollar can tend to limit gains in gold, since the precious metal is traded internationally in US dollars.

The cryptocurrency market, meanwhile, is showing renewed weakness. The cryptocurrency Bitcoin appears to have ended its previous breakout for now and is moving back within an existing downward channel.

Morning outlook

Developments in financial markets at the start of the week are being driven primarily by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The sharp rise in oil prices above the $100 mark is creating nervousness in stock markets and is weighing particularly on equities.

The current situation suggests that markets could remain exposed to increased volatility. The overall direction is likely to depend largely on whether the conflict escalates further or whether signs of de-escalation begin to emerge.

The US economic data published today for January/February 2026 show a mixed picture: ADP jobs significantly weaker than expected, ISM/PMI Services and Composite slightly better, oil inventories fell more strongly than forecast. The market reacts subdued: Gold falls back below $5,000, indices are mixed, oil prices remain in a narrow range.

Labor Market Data: ADP Disappoints, ISM/PMI Hold Up

The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for January came in at +22k, significantly below expectations of +46k (previous month revised down by -4k to +37k). This indicates weaker private job dynamics and fuels speculation about a more cautious Fed stance.

The ISM Services PMI rose to 52.7 (slightly above previous value expectations), the Composite Index to 53.0 (each +0.2 points above expectation). Both values continue to signal expansion in the services sector, albeit moderate – a small sentiment brightener after the ADP shock.

Oil Inventories: Stronger Decline Than Expected

The EIA crude oil inventories fell by -3.455 million barrels (expected -2 million). This is a clear bullish impulse (less supply), but refinery utilization and gasoline production were slightly declining. Brent and WTI cannot benefit from this and continue to move within their narrow daily range at around 67.30 and 63.10 USD per barrel respectively.

Precious Metals: Gold Below $5,000

Gold has fallen back below the $5,000 mark after the data and is struggling there with technical weakness. The combination of a firmer dollar and dampened rate cut expectations (after PMIs) continues to weigh. Silver shows similar dynamics. Volatility remains high – if the price cannot sustainably overcome the resistance at $5,000, this could trigger further selling pressure. Especially if the current support in the 4,900 USD area does not hold.

Indices: Mixed, Dow Slightly Positive

The US indices are uneven: The Dow is trending slightly positive (+0.22 %), while S&P 500 (-0.43 %) and Nasdaq (-0.78 %) are in the red. Sentiment remains fragile – positive PMI signals support, weak ADP data and firmer dollar brake. The S&P 500 is fighting around the 7,000 mark.

Conclusion

The market continues to show nervousness: ADP disappoints, PMI hold up, oil inventories bullish but without price effect. Gold below $5,000, indices mixed, cryptos sideways. The direction depends on the next impulses (Nonfarm Payrolls tomorrow, geopolitical situation). Anyone who wants to follow prices live on PC or smartphone will find a neutral overview here of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets – with the right platform, react quickly to surprising data: To the Trading Platform Overview.

Global equity markets are trading mostly higher on Friday ahead of the release of the US labor market data. Investors are focusing on the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), scheduled for 14:30 CET, as the report provides key insight into the strength of the US labor market and is closely watched as an indicator for potential interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve.

In Asia, markets closed with solid gains. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose by around 1.3%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advanced 2.34%.

European markets are also starting the final trading day of the week on a positive note. Germany’s DAX is up around 0.9%, or roughly 210 points, shortly after the opening bell, while the Euro Stoxx 50 is trading about 0.8% higher. Futures on major US indices are also pointing to a slightly positive start ahead of the labor market data. A broader overview of the US indices shows markets currently holding near recent highs.

Oil prices remain elevated amid Middle East tensions

In commodity markets, oil prices remain near the elevated levels seen the previous day as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to intensify. Following reports of expanded attacks by Iran against neighboring countries in the region, concerns about potential disruptions to energy supplies have increased.

US crude oil (WTI) has been able to maintain its higher price level in response to the situation, with a technical resistance currently forming in the area between 80 and 81 USD. Brent crude is showing a similar structure, facing resistance around 84 to 85 USD.

Gold benefits from uncertainty – dollar stable

Gold is meanwhile benefiting from the heightened tensions around the Persian Gulf, rising by roughly 0.9% in early trading.

The US dollar remains relatively stable at the same time, while the EUR/USD exchange rate continues to fluctuate around the 1.16 level.

In the cryptocurrency market, trading has become calmer again following yesterday’s move after the escalation in the Gulf region. Bitcoin is slightly lower but continues to hold above the key 70,000 USD level.

Focus today on the Nonfarm Payrolls

Later in the day, market attention will shift primarily to the release of the US labor market report. The Nonfarm Payrolls are considered one of the most important economic indicators and could trigger notable movements across equity, currency, and commodity markets, depending on the outcome, as the data provide important signals regarding the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy.

After yesterday's correction phase, the markets are showing a slight recovery on Tuesday morning. Precious metals and cryptocurrencies are struggling with resistance levels, while US indices are trending somewhat firmer again. The dollar remains stable. Here is an overview of the most important developments.

Precious Metals: Recovery, but Resistance at $4,900 / $86

Gold has recovered after yesterday's low and is currently trading around the $4,900 mark (spot & futures). From yesterday's daily low, the price has gained around 5–6 %, but is hitting exactly here a technical resistance (former intraday high and round number). A sustainable break above could end the correction and revive the uptrend. If the price stays below, a further test of the 4,800–4,850 zone is threatened.

Silver shows a similar picture: Currently around $86, after a strong rebound from the low. Here too there is a resistance (former high and Fibonacci level) that is currently braking the price. Silver remains more volatile than gold and reacts more strongly to dollar movements and risk appetite.

Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Fails at $79,000

The crypto market is moving predominantly sideways. Bitcoin is currently trading at around $78,100 and has not yet been able to sustainably overcome the $79,000 mark. After yesterday's pullback, BTC has gained a bit again, but remains in a narrow range (77,000–79,000 USD). Ethereum and larger altcoins show similar patterns – no clear direction, rather waiting. The correlation to stocks is still high, which is why a firmer US stock market could also support cryptos.

US Indices: Pre-Market Back Above 7,000 Points

The major US indices are trending slightly positive again this morning after yesterday's light minus. The S&P 500 is in pre-market at around 7,012 points and thus back above the important 7,000 mark. Nasdaq and Dow show similar recovery tendencies. Sentiment is still fragile – the market is waiting for new impulses from data or news. As long as no negative surprises come, the zone 6,900–7,000 could hold as short-term support.

Dollar stable – EUR/USD just above 1.18

The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains stable and is currently trading around 97.17. Against the euro (EUR/USD ~1.1850), the dollar has held its position. The stabilization comes after yesterday's PPI data and Fed hawkishness – a firmer dollar burdens commodities and risky assets, but indirectly supports US stocks.

Conclusion

The market remains nervous, but shows first signs of stabilization: Precious metals and cryptos recover slightly, but hit resistance, while the indices climb back above important marks. The dollar holds. The direction of the markets depends heavily on the next impulses (data, news, geopolitical situation). Anyone who wants to follow prices live on PC or smartphone will find a neutral overview here of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets: To the Trading Platform Overview.

Financial markets are showing mixed signals on Thursday. While the US dollar is gaining strength and adding pressure to equity markets, oil prices remain elevated. Gold is moving largely sideways despite the stronger dollar. Bitcoin, meanwhile, continues its upward move and is approaching the 73,000 USD level.

US Dollar Gains Strength

The US dollar has strengthened against the euro and is currently trading around the 1.159 level. A stronger US currency can tighten global financial conditions, as many commodities and international assets are denominated in dollars.

For investors outside the United States, US assets become more expensive, while capital flows may increasingly shift toward dollar liquidity. During periods of geopolitical uncertainty, the greenback can also benefit from its role as the world’s primary reserve currency.

Equity Markets Remain Under Pressure

Sentiment in equity markets remains cautious. Major US indices are still trading above key support levels but remain under mild pressure. Germany’s DAX is currently down around 0.60%. Futures on US indices show similar movements, with the Dow Jones down about 0.50% and the S&P 500 around 0.39% in negative territory.

A stronger US dollar often acts as a headwind for equities, as it can tighten global financial conditions and indirectly influence financing costs. At the same time, market participants continue to wait for new impulses from the geopolitical situation.

WTI Holds Above 76 USD

Oil prices remain relatively stable and have so far maintained the gains seen overnight. WTI continues to trade around 76 USD per barrel, while Brent is hovering near 82.60 USD.

Prices therefore remain at elevated levels as geopolitical risks continue to influence market expectations. At the same time, currently stable supply conditions are preventing a new dynamic upward move.

Gold Shows Little Movement Despite Stronger Dollar

Gold is currently trading largely sideways in a range between 5,135 and 5,170 USD and shows no strong directional movement despite the recent dollar strength.

Normally, a stronger US dollar acts as a headwind for the precious metal because gold becomes more expensive for buyers outside the dollar area. At the moment, however, this effect appears to be offset by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Bitcoin Approaches 73,000 USD

Bitcoin, meanwhile, continues its upward movement and is approaching the 73,000 USD level. After the cryptocurrency recently reclaimed the zone around 69,000 USD, many market participants are now focusing on the 73,000 USD area.

A detailed analysis of Bitcoin’s current technical situation can be found here:

Bitcoin Above 69,000 USD – Next Hurdle at 73,000 USD

Conclusion: Dollar Remains a Key Market Driver

The stronger US dollar currently remains an important factor influencing multiple asset classes. While equities remain under slight pressure and gold shows limited reaction, oil prices are holding at elevated levels. Bitcoin, on the other hand, continues to show strong momentum and is approaching important technical levels.

Whether this trend continues will likely depend in the coming trading days on the development of the US dollar, geopolitical risks and overall market risk sentiment.

The markets are showing clear risk aversion on Monday morning. Precious metals and cryptocurrencies are correcting strongly, US indices are trending negative overnight, while the US dollar is stabilizing again. Here is an overview of the most important developments.

Gold: Massive Pullback to $4,600

Gold has experienced a very pronounced correction in the last hours. From the recent high area, the price has fallen to currently $4,638 (– approx. 18 % from the all-time high a few days ago), with the current daily low already reaching $4,423.20. The decline appears dynamic and is driven by several factors:

• Stabilization of the US dollar (DXY back above 97)
• Subsiding acute geopolitical premium after recent news situation
• Technical overextension after the extremely rapid rise in January/February

Gold is currently fighting around the zone 4.550–4.600 USD. Holding above the mark could initiate stabilization, a break below could bring the next support at 4.400–4.500 USD into play. Volatility remains very high.

Silver: Parallel Development – Below $75

Silver shows an almost identical pattern to gold, only with even higher amplitude. Current price: **$74.35** (– approx. 38 % from the recent high area). Silver suffers from the same drivers as gold (dollar strength, risk aversion), but is additionally burdened by its industrial demand. The support zone is currently at 72–75 USD. A break below would activate the next larger zone at 65–70 USD. Silver remains significantly weaker than gold and shows a classic „high-beta“ reaction to the overall market.

Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Below $77,000

The crypto market is also correcting massively. Bitcoin is currently trading at $76,711 (– approx. 15–20 % from the recent high). Sentiment has clearly clouded since the end of January:

• Declining risk appetite after Fed signals
• Correlation with stocks and precious metals in risk reduction
• Technical overextension (RSI strongly overbought)

Ethereum and altcoins show similar or even stronger declines. The 75,000–78,000 USD zone is now decisive – holding above it could initiate bottom formation, a break could activate $70,000 as the next major mark.

US Indices: Overnight Negative, Pre-Market Slight Stabilization

The major US indices trended negative overnight: S&P 500 currently at 6,885 (– approx. 0.8–1.2 % from Friday's close). Nasdaq and Dow show similar declines. Sentiment is dampened by the combination of Fed hawkishness, PPI surprise and geopolitical uncertainty. In pre-market, a slight recovery is emerging – the S&P 500 is fighting around the 6,900 mark. As long as no new negative news comes, the zone 6,800–6,900 could hold as short-term support.

Dollar Finds Hold Again

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has recovered after yesterday's losses and is currently trading at 97.17. Against the EUR (~1.1850), the dollar has consolidated its position. The inflation impulse from PPI and the dampened expectations of quick rate cuts give the dollar short-term tailwind.

Conclusion

The market continues to show high nervousness. Precious metals and cryptos correct significantly, the indices trend negative, only the dollar can stabilize. The current phase is characterized by high uncertainty – any new impulse (geopolitical news, data, Trump statements) can lead to strong swings. There is currently a kind of „holding pattern“. Anyone who wants to follow prices live on PC or smartphone will find a neutral overview here of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets – with the right platform always at hand in volatile markets: To the Trading Platform Overview.

Geopolitical tensions in Iran remain elevated, yet financial markets increasingly show signs of adjustment. While oil prices continue to react sensitively to overnight developments, gold, major equity indices, and the DAX have stabilized during the current session. Panic-driven moves are largely absent at this stage – instead, markets appear to be consolidating at a higher risk level.

Oil Remains Headline-Driven

Oil prices continue to respond directly to military developments. During overnight fighting, prices tend to move higher, only to ease again during regular trading hours. This pattern suggests an ongoing risk assessment rather than a structural supply shock.

As long as no sustained disruptions to production or transportation infrastructure emerge, oil is likely to remain strongly influenced by geopolitical headlines. The current risk environment appears to be priced in, without a new escalation phase being reflected in markets.

Gold Stabilizes Above 5,100 USD

Gold is trading above the 5,100 USD mark, showing relative stability. At the same time, the metal remains below last Friday’s level (February 27, 2026).

A dynamic flight into traditional safe-haven assets has not materialized so far.

The US dollar is fluctuating around the 1.16 level against the euro and remains largely uneventful. As a result, there is currently no additional currency impulse that would significantly support or pressure gold.

US Indices Defend Key Support Levels

Major US indices have so far defended their recently tested support zones. After initial uncertainty, price action has stabilized.

Holding these technical levels indicates underlying demand, although no renewed upside momentum has emerged yet. Markets appear to be in a stabilization phase rather than entering a new acceleration cycle – in either direction.

DAX Returns to the 23,900-Point Area

The DAX, one of the most important stock indices in the eurozone, has also stabilized, returning to the 23,900-point area in the morning session. The index is currently trading slightly below that level, leaving the zone as a key technical reference area.

A sustained break below this level has therefore not materialized.

Rheinmetall Stabilizes Near Support

After Monday’s gains at the start of the week were quickly sold into and weakness continued on Tuesday, the stock stabilized this morning near support around 1,570 euros. The share is currently posting a slight gain.

The fact that a leading defense contractor is not acting as a clear stabilizing force in a tense geopolitical environment highlights the overall restrained market reaction.

Bitcoin Tests 69,000 USD Again

Bitcoin is once again approaching the 69,000 USD level. The cryptocurrency shows relative stability but does not exhibit pronounced safe-haven characteristics.

Price movements continue to be driven more by general risk sentiment and liquidity flows than by geopolitical developments.

Conclusion: Adjustment at an Elevated Risk Level

Tensions surrounding Iran remain elevated, yet financial markets are not showing signs of escalating dynamics. Oil reacts selectively to new developments, gold remains stable, equity markets defend key support levels, and the DAX has reclaimed important technical ground.

Overall, markets appear to be adjusting: geopolitical risk remains present – but is currently being absorbed rather than amplified.

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for December came in significantly stronger than expected: YoY +3.0 % (expected 2.7 %), MoM +0.5 % (expected 0.2 %). This is a clear inflation impulse that further reinforces the dampened rate cut expectations from the previous day. The market is reacting promptly: Gold continues to correct, the dollar stabilizes slightly, and the indices oscillate nervously.

Gold and Silver Fighting for Important Levels

Gold has corrected sharply from yesterday's high of around $5,626 and is now fighting around the $5,000 mark after the PPI data (currently ~$5,015–5,050, –10 % from the high). Silver is similarly affected – from the high area around $120 it fell below $100 and is now trading just below it. Both metals are showing clear consolidation after the previous overbought condition, with possible support zones around $5,000 (gold) and $100 (silver).

USD Stabilizes

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has slightly gained on the PPI data and is stabilizing at around 96.50–96.70. Against the EUR (EUR/USD ~1.19), GBP and Yen, the dollar has partially made up for yesterday's losses – the basic tendency remains weak, but the inflation impulse gives it short-term support.

Indices Under Pressure – Slight Recovery

The major US indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow) were initially in the red after the PPI release, but are partially recovering in pre-market (S&P 500 +0.1 to +0.3 %). Sentiment remains fragile – a PPI confirming inflation pressure dampens risk appetite, but the robust US economy is preventing a real sell-off so far.

In Europe, the indices are initially friendly after market open on the last trading day of the week. The DAX is currently (10:00 CET) showing a gain of around 0.89 % and the Euro Stoxx 50 a gain of 0.65 %.

Conclusion

The entire market continues to show high nervousness. Gold and silver correct sharply, the dollar stabilizes for now, and the indices oscillate between pressure and slight recovery. Any new impulse can lead to significant swings up or down. There is currently still a kind of „holding pattern“ – the direction will probably only become clear with the next important data points.

Anyone who wants to follow the market and prices live on PC or smartphone will find a neutral overview here of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets: To the Trading Platform Overview.

After roughly one hour of regular trading in the United States, financial markets appear to be stabilizing at elevated stress levels. While oil prices continue to edge higher and the US dollar remains firm, major US indices are trading near key technical support zones. European markets, meanwhile, remain noticeably weaker.

US Dollar Remains the Dominant Driver

The US dollar is once again at the center of market movements. EUR/USD is trading around 1.157, reflecting sustained dollar strength. A stronger dollar tends to tighten global financial conditions and can weigh on risk-sensitive assets and commodities.

Capital flows into dollar liquidity are reinforcing the current pressure on equities and precious metals. For investors outside the United States, dollar-denominated assets become more expensive, adding another layer of strain to global markets.

Gold Under Pressure Despite Ongoing Uncertainty

Gold briefly tested the 5,000 level earlier in the session and is currently trading around 5,058. Notably, the metal has not shown a strong safe-haven response despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Dollar strength appears to be a key factor. A rising USD traditionally acts as a headwind for gold, limiting upward momentum even during periods of uncertainty.

US Indices Test Key Support Levels

The S&P 500 is trading near the 6,730 support area, with other major US indices positioned close to comparable technical zones. Following a weaker start, price action has moderated.

As long as these support levels hold, the possibility of technical stabilization remains. A sustained break below these areas would increase downside risks, while current conditions suggest consolidation rather than acceleration.

European Markets Show Greater Weakness

The DAX is trading around 23,600, significantly below last Friday’s close near 25,300. European equities appear more sensitive to higher energy prices and currency dynamics.

The combination of elevated oil prices and a firm US dollar continues to weigh on sentiment across the region.

WTI Holds Above Recent Levels

WTI crude is trading around 76.5, reflecting persistent supply-related uncertainty. Rather than reacting to a new escalation, markets appear to be pricing in the continued presence of geopolitical risk.

Higher energy prices contribute to inflation concerns and margin pressure for companies, keeping oil a central variable for equity performance.

Is Dollar Strength Capping the Oil Rally?

While a firm US dollar typically acts as a headwind for commodities, oil prices remain elevated amid ongoing supply concerns. However, continued dollar strength may limit the short-term upside potential.

Bitcoin Stabilizes Near 67,000

Bitcoin is trading around 67,000 after briefly testing 70,000 overnight. The cryptocurrency remains relatively stable but does not currently display a clear safe-haven characteristic.

In the current environment, Bitcoin continues to behave more like a risk asset than a defensive allocation.

Conclusion: Markets at a Technical Crossroads

After the first hour of US trading, volatility has moderated. The US dollar remains the dominant driver, while equities and gold stay under pressure. Oil prices are elevated but not accelerating.

Major indices are positioned near important technical levels, suggesting that markets are in a decision phase rather than a panic-driven sell-off.

US President Donald Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as successor to Jerome Powell for the position of Fed Chair. The announcement came surprisingly early and immediately moved the markets. Gold and silver are correcting sharply, the dollar is stabilizing, while the indices initially came under pressure.

Gold and Silver Under Pressure

Gold has corrected sharply from yesterday's all-time high of around $5,626 and is currently trading at about $5,100 (–3.7 %). Silver has given way similarly strongly – from the high area around $120 it fell below $100 (–9–10 %), now fighting around this mark. Both metals initially found support in the zone around $5,150 (gold) and just above $100 (silver), but show clear uncertainty after the previous overbought condition.

Why Warsh is considered hawkish

Kevin Warsh, former Fed Governor (2006–2011), is considered rather hawkish in monetary policy. In the past he has advocated a tighter stance, criticized the strong expansion of the Fed balance sheet and warned of inflation risks. While he has been more open to lower interest rates in recent times, many observers see in him a candidate who tends toward more restrictive policy rather than aggressive cuts. That would mean: longer higher interest rates, stronger dollar potential, less liquidity – classic headwind for gold and other commodities.

Market Reaction

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has gained on the news and is stabilizing at around 96.50–96.60. The US indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow) initially slipped into the red, but are partially recovering in pre-market. The announcement is interpreted as a signal for a more independent, but potentially tighter Fed policy – which dampens risk appetite.

Conclusion

The nomination of Kevin Warsh creates new uncertainty and nervousness. After Trump's statements about a potentially weak US dollar, the exact opposite was certainly expected from Kevin Warsh. Gold and silver, which benefited significantly from Trump's dollar statement a few days ago, are now correcting sharply, the dollar remains stable and the indices are oscillating. The market is now waiting for further details on confirmation. Any new impulse could lead to strong swings. Anyone who wants to follow the market and prices live on PC or smartphone will find a neutral overview here of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets: To the Trading Platform Overview.

Markets are reacting sharply this morning: WTI crude oil is trading above 74 USD, European indices are under significant pressure, Germany’s DAX is down more than three percent, and the Nikkei closed with steep losses. At the same time, the US dollar is strengthening, while EUR/USD has slipped toward the 1.16 area.

What stands out, however, is that no new military escalation was reported overnight. The Strait of Hormuz had already been under restrictions, and no fresh headlines indicating immediate intensification have emerged. Why, then, are markets reacting more aggressively today?

The answer lies less in a new phase of escalation and more in the growing pricing-in of a prolonged risk scenario.

Markets React Not Only to Events – But to Probabilities

Financial markets do not assess only current events; they primarily evaluate potential consequences. If a geopolitical conflict does not de-escalate quickly, the probability of tangible economic impacts increases with each passing day.

In the current environment, this implies:

• Persistent uncertainty regarding energy supply stability
• Market participants factoring in extended shipping disruptions
• Potential increases in insurance premiums and transportation costs

The longer diplomatic progress remains absent, the more the risk premium expands – particularly in the energy sector. Oil prices therefore respond not only to actual supply disruptions but also to the rising probability that such disruptions could materialize.

This helps explain why WTI is not merely spiking briefly but sustaining gains above technically relevant levels.

Oil: Risk Premium Rather Than Demand Surge

The current move is not driven by a classic demand impulse. Instead, it reflects a geopolitical risk premium.

As long as tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz persist, the scenario of constrained supply remains embedded in market pricing. Even without a complete shutdown, uncertainty alone is sufficient to trigger hedging flows.

A breakout above the 73 USD resistance level – trading at 74.75 USD at the time of writing – further reinforces technical momentum as stop orders are triggered and trend-following strategies become active.

Equity Markets: Oil as a Pressure Factor on Margins and Inflation

While energy stocks may benefit from rising prices, broader indices tend to react sensitively to higher commodity costs.

A persistently elevated oil price implies:

• Rising input costs for corporations
• Potential pressure on profit margins
• A renewed inflationary impulse

In an environment where monetary policy remains sensitive to inflation dynamics, sustained oil strength adds another layer of uncertainty regarding future rate expectations.

Markets discount such risks early. This helps explain why equity indices are reacting more forcefully than a single headline might suggest. What we are observing is a reassessment of the broader macroeconomic risk profile.

Equity Indices: Futures Signal Broad Risk Aversion

A look at index futures highlights clear risk aversion: US index futures are trading notably lower, while European and Asian benchmarks are recording even steeper losses. Germany’s DAX has fallen below the 24,000 level after trading above 25,300 as recently as Friday.

US futures are also under pressure, with Dow Jones futures down 1.60% and S&P 500 futures lower by 1.70% in pre-market trading. The comparatively sharper declines in European and Asian markets indicate that global risk sentiment is broadly deteriorating.

This pattern suggests that the move is not confined to individual sectors but reflects an adjustment in overall positioning. Rising energy costs weigh on earnings expectations, while macroeconomic uncertainty prompts portfolio rebalancing. Futures serve as early indicators of how regular US trading may unfold.

These equity signals align with other risk indicators, including US dollar strength and increased volatility in digital assets, reinforcing the current risk-off environment.

Bitcoin Tests 70,000 USD – Risk Asset Under Pressure

The cryptocurrency market is also showing elevated volatility. Bitcoin briefly tested the 70,000 USD level overnight before retreating toward the 67,000 USD area.

While Bitcoin is sometimes discussed as an alternative store of value, periods of pronounced risk aversion often reveal its correlation with broader risk assets. The recent pullback suggests that investors are prioritizing liquidity and reducing overall risk exposure.

Currency Markets: US Dollar Benefits from Risk-Off Flows

The US dollar is strengthening alongside the broader shift in sentiment. During periods of heightened uncertainty, capital typically flows into highly liquid reserve currencies.

The dollar benefits from:

• Its status as the world’s primary reserve currency
• Deep and liquid capital markets
• Relative interest rate dynamics

The move in EUR/USD toward the 1.16 level reflects not only dollar strength but also a broader shift toward defensive positioning.

Why the Reaction Is Intensifying Now

Geopolitical market reactions often unfold in phases:

1. Initial shock response
2. Assessment of potential economic impact
3. Positioning adjustments if de-escalation fails to materialize

Current price action suggests markets are entering the third phase. Institutional investors appear to be adjusting risk exposure as the probability of a prolonged conflict scenario increases.

It is not a new escalation driving markets today, but rather the growing likelihood that tensions will not ease quickly.

Outlook: News Flow Remains the Key Catalyst

Incoming headlines will likely continue to dominate price action in the coming sessions. Key factors include diplomatic developments, shipping activity in the Middle East, and further movements in energy markets.

If tensions remain unresolved, the embedded risk premium may persist. Conversely, clear signals of de-escalation could trigger sharp counter-movements across asset classes.

Today’s market action illustrates a central principle: Markets are driven not only by events, but by their duration and the probabilities investors assign to future outcomes.

After the parabolic rise of recent days, gold experienced a very pronounced correction yesterday. From the intraday high of $5,626, it moved dynamically downward to the area around $5,200. The price is currently consolidating exactly there (spot & futures between approx. $5,180–5,230), after yesterday's Fed meeting (no further rate cut, dampened expectations for future steps) initially triggered selling pressure.

Silver behaves similarly: Here too there was a sharp correction from the all-time high of around $120 to the zone just above $100. The price is currently finding support here. Both precious metals are showing a clear consolidation phase after the previous overbought condition.

USD stabilizes for now

The US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a slight stabilization yesterday and this morning. It is currently trading at around 96.50 and shows a support zone around 96.20–96.30. Against the EUR (EUR/USD ~1.19), GBP and Yen, the dollar has partially made up for yesterday's losses – the basic tendency remains weak, however.

This afternoon (14:30 CET) the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data is expected, which could provide clues about inflation developments in the US. If they come in lower than expected, hopes for a further rate cut could strengthen again and provide an impulse for precious metals prices. A higher reading could, however, have the opposite effect, but would probably support the USD.

Indices under pressure – slight recovery

The major US indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow) were initially clearly in the red yesterday evening and overnight (–0.8 to –1.5 % after the Fed). In the morning there is a partial recovery: Pre-market the S&P 500 is again nearly unchanged to slightly positive, Nasdaq and Dow also somewhat firmer. Nevertheless, sentiment remains fragile – a PPI (Producer Price Index) suggesting a decline in inflation could improve sentiment and give the stock market at least limited support.

In Europe, the indices are initially friendly after market open on the last trading day of the week. The DAX is currently (10:00 CET) showing a gain of around 0.89 % and the Euro Stoxx 50 a gain of 0.65 %.

Conclusion

The entire market continues to show high nervousness. Gold and silver correct sharply, the dollar stabilizes for now, and the indices oscillate between pressure and slight recovery. Any new impulse (this afternoon the PPI data) can lead to significant swings up or down. There is currently a kind of „holding pattern“ – the direction will probably only become clear with the next important data points.

Anyone who wants to follow the market and prices live on PC or smartphone will find a neutral overview here of established trading platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets: To the Trading Platform Overview.

More than 48 hours after the escalation involving Iran, financial markets continue to react sensitively at the start of the new trading week. Recent developments, including reported attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, have reinforced geopolitical risk considerations.

While the overall market reaction remains controlled, risk premiums in selected asset classes appear to have increased, particularly in energy and safe-haven assets.

Oil Remains the Central Focus

The oil market continues to be at the center of attention. Reports of attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure have intensified concerns about potential supply disruptions, even though the full extent of operational impact cannot yet be conclusively assessed.

WTI crude is currently encountering resistance near the 73 USD per barrel level. The inability to break significantly higher so far may suggest that markets are pricing in risk, but not yet a sustained supply shock.

Whether oil prices move decisively higher will likely depend on whether further escalation affects key energy production sites or major transport routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold Holds Above Key Levels

Gold has extended its strength, trading above the 5,400 USD mark and approaching technical resistance near 5,410 USD. The move suggests continued demand for defensive positioning.

However, price dynamics remain closely tied to headline risk, meaning that any signs of de-escalation could quickly moderate safe-haven flows.

Equity Markets: Regional Divergence

Equity futures indicate that European and Asian markets are currently under more pronounced pressure than their US counterparts. This relative divergence may reflect geographical proximity to the conflict and differing risk sensitivities.

Overall, the decline appears broad but not disorderly. Market behavior suggests reassessment rather than systemic stress at this stage.

Conclusion

More than two days after the escalation, market reactions remain evident but comparatively contained. Investors appear to be adjusting risk expectations rather than pricing in a full-scale economic disruption.

The sustainability of current movements will likely depend on whether geopolitical tensions translate into tangible impacts on energy infrastructure, shipping routes, or broader economic activity.

US President Donald Trump's statements (criticism of the dollar exchange rate, new 25% tariff threats against South Korea, implicit Fed criticism) have put the markets in turmoil yesterday evening and this morning. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has slipped significantly (currently 96.2), while reactions in stocks, gold and oil are diverging. The market shows nervousness, but no uniform direction.

Dollar under pressure – the central driver

The DXY has lost about 0.4–0.6 % since Trump's speech. A weaker dollar makes commodities (gold, oil, copper) cheaper for international buyers and at the same time supports riskier assets such as stocks. The combination of dollar criticism and tariff threats has split the market into two camps: safe-haven buyers (gold) and risk chasers (stocks).

Stocks: Slight gains despite uncertainty

S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow are trading sideways to slightly positive (+0.2 to +0.5 %). The markets are interpreting Trump's rhetoric so far as „loud, but not new“ – no concrete new tariff packages, but repetitions. As long as no escalation follows, cyclicals and tech benefit from the dollar weakness. A real breakout to the upside is not yet visible, however.

Gold: New all-time high above $5,300 despite correction attempt

Gold briefly dipped below $5,000 yesterday (low ~$4,980–4,990), but quickly recovered to the resistance at $5,100. After Trump's speech this resistance was overcome and a new all-time high above $5,300 was reached. The dollar weakness clearly dominates here – structural drivers (central bank purchases, geopolitics) keep the price stable.

Oil: Still weak

WTI and Brent are giving way (–0.8 to –1.2 %). The US winter storm has not caused major refinery outages so far, inventories remain high, demand subdued. Oil can only benefit very limitedly from the dollar decline.

Today's Trump speech in focus

Today at 14:30 CET (GMT+1:00): Another speech by Donald Trump is expected – again with high potential for market disruptions (tariffs, Fed, trade policy). Historically, such statements often trigger 1–2 % swings in indices and commodities.

Today at 20:00 CET (GMT+1:00): The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, followed by a press conference at 8:30 p.m. CET (GMT+1:00). If Donald Trump once again launches a sharp attack on the Fed and its chairman today, the press conference could provide clarity on whether the president and the central bank are heading towards an open conflict at an accelerated pace.

Conclusion

The market is moving, but at the same time it is in a holding pattern ahead of Trump and the Fed: the dollar is weak, equities are trending slightly higher, oil remains under pressure and gold is above USD 5,300 in search of its next all-time high. A more accurate assessment of further developments will therefore only be possible after Trump and the Fed. If you want to follow the markets and prices live on your PC or smartphone, you will find a neutral overview of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets here: Trading platform overview.

After just over 24 hours of military escalation involving Iran, an initial cautious assessment of market reactions can be made ahead of the start of the new trading week. Although the full consequences cannot yet be conclusively evaluated, typical patterns of geopolitical crises are already beginning to emerge.

The central question is whether this represents a short-term shock reaction – or whether a structural risk premium needs to be priced into various asset classes.

Oil Price: Risk Premium Moves to the Forefront

The oil market naturally stands at the center of attention. An escalation in the area surrounding the Strait of Hormuz could be interpreted by market participants as a potential supply risk, as a significant share of global crude oil exports passes through this narrow waterway.

If the situation were to intensify further or if concrete disruptions to shipping were to occur, an additional geopolitical risk premium could be factored into oil prices. In such a scenario, temporarily higher price levels would be conceivable.

If, however, the situation were to remain limited to a contained military operation without affecting energy infrastructure, prices could stabilize again following an initial shock reaction.

WTI in Focus: The 2024 Price Level

From a technical perspective, particular attention is being paid to the area above 78 USD per barrel. This price level marked a relevant zone of elevated quotations in 2024.

Whether oil prices sustainably move into this area will largely depend on whether the geopolitical situation broadens or whether key energy and transport routes are actually affected.

Gold Price: Potential Safe-Haven Demand

Gold traditionally reacts sensitively during periods of geopolitical uncertainty. In an environment of heightened tensions, investors may increasingly favor defensive assets.

If uncertainty were to persist, gold could remain supported as a hedging instrument. At the same time, it would also be conceivable that part of any risk premium could be unwound in the event of rapid de-escalation.

Movements in the gold market are therefore likely to be driven less by short-term fundamentals and more by overall risk perception.

Equity Markets: A Risk-Off Mode Possible

Equity markets could enter a classic “risk-off” mode. Cyclical sectors and highly valued growth stocks could come under pressure, while defensive sectors may show relative stability.

If the conflict were to remain regionally contained and not disrupt global supply chains, heightened volatility could prove temporary. Historically, many geopolitical events have left only short-term traces on equity markets.

Conclusion

After roughly 24 hours, it can be observed that not the damage incurred so far, but rather uncertainty itself may be shaping market behavior. The decisive factor will be whether the escalation remains regionally contained or whether key energy and transport routes – particularly around the Strait of Hormuz – are actually affected.

Financial markets currently appear to be reacting less to facts than to potential scenarios. How sustainable current market movements turn out to be will largely depend on whether geopolitical risk translates into tangible economic disruptions.

The statements by US President Donald Trump (criticism of the dollar exchange rate, new 25% tariff threats against South Korea, implicit Fed criticism) have noticeably moved the market yesterday evening and this morning. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has slipped significantly (currently 102.8–103.0), while reactions in stocks, gold and oil are diverging. The market shows nervousness, but no uniform direction.

Dollar under pressure – the central driver

The DXY has lost about 0.4–0.6 % since Trump's speech. A weaker dollar makes commodities (gold, oil, copper) cheaper for international buyers and at the same time supports riskier assets such as stocks. The combination of dollar criticism and tariff threats has split the market into two camps: safe-haven buyers (gold) and risk chasers (stocks).

Stocks: Slight gains despite uncertainty

S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow are trading sideways to slightly positive (+0.2 to +0.5 %). The markets are interpreting Trump's rhetoric so far as „loud, but not new“ – no concrete new tariff packages, but repetitions. As long as no escalation follows, cyclicals and tech benefit from the dollar weakness. A real breakout to the upside is not yet visible, however.

Gold: New all-time high despite correction attempt

Gold briefly dipped below $5,000 yesterday (low ~$4,980–4,990), but quickly recovered to the resistance at $5,100. After Trump's speech this resistance was overcome and a new all-time high of $5,190 was reached. The dollar weakness clearly dominates here – structural drivers (central bank purchases, geopolitics) keep the price stable.

Oil: Still weak

WTI and Brent are giving way (–0.8 to –1.2 %). The US winter storm has not caused major refinery outages so far, inventories remain high, demand subdued. Oil can only benefit very limitedly from the dollar decline.

Tomorrow's Trump speech in focus

Tomorrow at 14:30 CET another speech by Donald Trump is expected – again with high potential for market disruptions (tariffs, Fed, trade policy). Historically, such statements often trigger 1–2 % swings in indices and commodities.

Conclusion

The market remains predominantly on hold: dollar weak, stocks slightly up, gold with new record above $5,100, oil still under pressure. Further developments this week depend heavily on Trump and his speech tomorrow. Anyone who wants to follow markets and prices live on PC or smartphone will find a neutral overview here of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets: To the Trading Platform Overview.