On Friday morning, markets appear to be searching for direction. However, the past 24 hours have shown that even smaller geopolitical signals can trigger reactions. After oil prices rose again yesterday due to growing skepticism about the success of the ceasefire and stock markets declined, this movement was halted in the early evening.
X post by Benjamin Netanyahu sparks hope
At around 18:00 CET, the Israeli Prime Minister posted on X (formerly Twitter) that he had ordered the direct start of peace negotiations with Lebanon. As an end to hostilities had been a key demand by Iran for implementing the ceasefire and reopening Hormuz, this immediately sparked hope in the markets.
As a result, oil prices dropped by around 4%, and the previously weak US stock market quickly moved into positive territory. As it later became clear that negotiations do not necessarily mean an immediate end to fighting in Lebanon, oil prices edged slightly higher again. However, indices were largely able to hold on to their gains.
Oil price at potential resistance
After the price of WTI crude fell to around 90 US dollars per barrel on the spot market in the early evening, it rebounded to the 93 US dollar level. This level was not broken during the evening session. Currently, however, the price is trading slightly above it at 93.25 US dollars. Brent crude shows a similar pattern and is currently trading just above the temporary resistance at 95.35 US dollars per barrel.
Stocks in wait-and-see mode
Following the evening impulse, stock markets started trading with gains of around 0.55%. These gains are currently being largely maintained. However, the overall market appears to be in a wait-and-see mode, looking for new catalysts.
The German benchmark index DAX is currently up 0.49% at 23,874 points, about 20 points below its intraday high. The French CAC 40 shows a similar pattern, gaining 0.20% and trading at 8,263 points.
US dollar above 1.16 against the euro
The US dollar weakened against most currencies following the announcement of the ceasefire agreement. Against the euro, it moved back above the 1.16 level and even briefly rose above 1.17 yesterday evening. Currently, the dollar is gaining around 0.20% against the euro, with the EUR/USD pair trading at 1.1678. The US dollar is also strengthening against the yen, with USD/JPY currently at 159.31, about 0.22% higher than the previous day.
Gold and Bitcoin consolidate
The gold price has moved slightly away from yesterday’s high at the resistance level of 4,800 US dollars per ounce. It is currently trading sideways around 4,750 US dollars.
Bitcoin and most altcoins show a similar pattern. BTC briefly approached the 73,000 US dollar level overnight but failed to break above it. Since yesterday’s recovery, the price has been moving within a range between 73,000 and 70,500 US dollars. It is currently trading at 71,596 US dollars, up 0.50% on the day.
Markets remain defensive ahead of the weekend
Ahead of the weekend, many market participants appear to have adopted a more defensive stance. Given the ongoing nervousness and the sometimes strong reactions to geopolitical developments, this would be understandable.