On Thursday, it once again becomes clear how strongly financial markets are currently influenced by the geopolitical situation. After three days of moderate recovery, sentiment is turning again, with growing pessimism regarding developments in the Persian Gulf.
While equities and metals are declining, the US dollar is strengthening and benefiting from rising uncertainty.
Oil prices rise back above key levels
After announcements of potential peace talks failed to deliver concrete progress and were even denied by Iran, concerns about crude oil supply are increasing again.
Following the sharp price decline at the beginning of the week, oil prices have been rising again since midweek and have reclaimed key levels.
WTI crude is now trading above the 90 US dollar mark at around 93.40 US dollars per barrel. Brent crude has also moved back above 100 US dollars and is currently trading at approximately 101.50 US dollars per barrel.
Rising oil prices weigh on stock markets
Higher oil prices, ongoing concerns about potential supply disruptions, and the lack of de-escalation are putting renewed pressure on equity markets.
After several days of recovery, indices are turning negative again following weak signals from Asia. The DAX is currently trading at around 22,625 points, down approximately 1.35%, falling clearly below the 23,000 mark once again.
The French CAC 40 is also declining, losing around 0.92% to approximately 7,774 points. Spain’s IBEX 35 is showing even greater weakness, down about 1.92% at roughly 16,995 points.
Gold under pressure
Gold is also coming under renewed pressure and is unable to hold the 4,500 US dollar level. Rising oil prices are supporting the US dollar, which is showing moderate strength.
A stronger US dollar typically weighs on gold prices. In addition, the increased demand for liquidity in falling markets may lead to further reductions in gold positions.
Bitcoin falls below 70,000 US dollars
Weakness is also continuing in cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has fallen back below the 70,000 US dollar level and is currently trading at around 69,400 US dollars, down approximately 3.1%.
Altcoins are showing even greater losses. Ethereum is down around 5.2% to approximately 2,072 US dollars, while Solana is declining by about 5.7% to around 87.64 US dollars.
This development highlights that cryptocurrencies are currently showing a stronger correlation with movements in traditional markets.
Outlook: high volatility likely to persist
In the weeks since the outbreak of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, a market dynamic has emerged that is difficult to assess. Even hints of potential negotiations can trigger short-term optimism, while a lack of progress quickly reverses sentiment.
As long as no lasting solution is in sight, volatility is likely to remain high, and the market environment will continue to be challenging for investors and traders.