The statements by US President Donald Trump (criticism of the dollar exchange rate, new 25% tariff threats against South Korea, implicit Fed criticism) have noticeably moved the market yesterday evening and this morning. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has slipped significantly (currently 102.8–103.0), while reactions in stocks, gold and oil are diverging. The market shows nervousness, but no uniform direction.
Dollar under pressure – the central driver
The DXY has lost about 0.4–0.6 % since Trump's speech. A weaker dollar makes commodities (gold, oil, copper) cheaper for international buyers and at the same time supports riskier assets such as stocks. The combination of dollar criticism and tariff threats has split the market into two camps: safe-haven buyers (gold) and risk chasers (stocks).
Stocks: Slight gains despite uncertainty
S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow are trading sideways to slightly positive (+0.2 to +0.5 %). The markets are interpreting Trump's rhetoric so far as „loud, but not new“ – no concrete new tariff packages, but repetitions. As long as no escalation follows, cyclicals and tech benefit from the dollar weakness. A real breakout to the upside is not yet visible, however.
Gold: New all-time high despite correction attempt
Gold briefly dipped below $5,000 yesterday (low ~$4,980–4,990), but quickly recovered to the resistance at $5,100. After Trump's speech this resistance was overcome and a new all-time high of $5,190 was reached. The dollar weakness clearly dominates here – structural drivers (central bank purchases, geopolitics) keep the price stable.
Oil: Still weak
WTI and Brent are giving way (–0.8 to –1.2 %). The US winter storm has not caused major refinery outages so far, inventories remain high, demand subdued. Oil can only benefit very limitedly from the dollar decline.
Tomorrow's Trump speech in focus
Tomorrow at 14:30 CET another speech by Donald Trump is expected – again with high potential for market disruptions (tariffs, Fed, trade policy). Historically, such statements often trigger 1–2 % swings in indices and commodities.
Conclusion
The market remains predominantly on hold: dollar weak, stocks slightly up, gold with new record above $5,100, oil still under pressure. Further developments this week depend heavily on Trump and his speech tomorrow. Anyone who wants to follow markets and prices live on PC or smartphone will find a neutral overview here of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets: To the Trading Platform Overview.
