The start of the week is dominated by the US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, which is unsettling market participants. Gold stabilizes above 5,100 USD as a result, while the US dollar, indices, and Bitcoin initially come under pressure. Bitcoin falls overnight to around 64,400 USD but shows signs of recovery. Here is an analysis of the market reactions and possible consequences.
US Supreme Court Tariff Ruling and Possible Consequences
The US Supreme Court ruling, declaring the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration unlawful, is interpreted by the market as a possible signal for a continuing or reigniting trade conflict. The possible consequences are diverse: Higher import prices could further fuel US inflation, reinforce the Fed's hawkish stance, and simultaneously increase growth concerns in export-dependent economies. For risk assets (stocks, Bitcoin), this is negative, while gold benefits as an inflation and uncertainty hedge. Oil prices show no strong reaction so far, indicating that the market does not yet see an immediate supply threat.
Reaction from Trump and US Administration
The US administration has so far commented on the ruling in a restrained manner. There are indications that the government sees the decision as confirmation of its trade policy and does not rule out further measures. Concrete announcements are still pending, but the rhetoric points to a continuation of the hard line. This increases uncertainty for global supply chains and puts pressure on the dollar as a “safe haven” – paradoxically, since higher tariffs could also burden the US economy in the long term. It remains to be seen, among other things, how the tariff agreement between the USA and the EU will continue. Will the uniform tariff of 15 % remain, or could the EU Commission aim to return to the old tariffs, which would reignite the trade conflict?
Gold Price Reacts with Gains
The gold price reacts classically: It rises above 5,100 USD and stabilizes there. The increase is driven by several factors: Inflation fears due to higher import prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and its function as a safe haven in uncertain times. Technically, gold has reclaimed the 5,000–5,100 USD zone. The next resistances are currently at 5,150–5,200 USD, with support in the 5,000–4,950 USD area. As long as the tariff topic remains present, gold could continue to benefit from it.
US Dollar and Indices Under Pressure After Ruling
The US dollar showed a mixed reaction. With the start of trading overnight, EUR/USD climbed above the 1.18 level, while indices recorded almost instant losses. Overnight, the indices stabilized, and currently they show slight signs of recovery. Short-term, the dollar could still benefit from flight to “safe” currencies, but medium-term, higher tariffs could slow growth and force the Fed into a softer stance – which would burden the dollar. The indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, DAX) declined pre-market, as higher import costs could pressure corporate profits. Export-oriented and cyclical sectors are particularly affected.
Bitcoin Takes Another Hit
Bitcoin recorded an overnight pullback to around 64,400 USD but recovered to about 65,700 USD. The reaction is typical for risk assets: Initial sell-off due to uncertainty, then stabilization once it becomes clear that no immediate escalation is imminent. Bitcoin remains volatile – a prolonged tariff crisis could strengthen the “digital gold” narrative, but short-term, risk aversion predominates.
Conclusion
The tariff ruling acts as a catalyst for uncertainty. Gold benefits as a classic safe haven, while risk assets (indices, Bitcoin) initially suffer. Medium-term, much depends on whether the administration sees the ruling as a blank check for further tariffs or whether negotiations take place. Traders should closely monitor the development of import prices, inflation expectations, and the Fed's response. Gold remains the most defensive play in this environment, while oil prices and Bitcoin are more dependent on geopolitical headlines.
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