New statements from US President Donald Trump about a possible near-term end to the conflict meet mixed signals from Asia at the end of the week. However, this combination is not leading to a clear directional move, but rather to caution across markets.
Accordingly, the start of trading is uneven: while the DAX is posting slight gains in the morning, overall momentum remains limited. Market participants are reacting cautiously to the prospect of de-escalation without fully pricing it in.
European markets cautiously optimistic – new records in the US
Although hopes for an end to the conflict in the Persian Gulf continue to rise, optimism in European markets remains relatively contained. The German benchmark DAX is currently up by 88.7 points, or 0.37%, at around 24,240 points, still roughly 1,200 points below its all-time high reached in January.
A similar picture is seen in the Euro Stoxx 50 and France’s CAC 40. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up around 0.25% at 5,948 points, while the CAC 40 gains 0.31% to 8,288 points.
Nasdaq 100 at record high, but US rally remains selective
The picture in the US is notably different. While the S&P 500 had already reached new highs on Wednesday, the Nasdaq 100 followed yesterday, marking a new all-time high. The upward move is once again driven by growth-oriented and technology stocks.
At the same time, the rally remains clearly selective. The Dow Jones is still noticeably below its record level, suggesting that traditional industrial and blue-chip stocks are not benefiting to the same extent. A look at US index futures shows moderate gains in pre-market trading, led by the Dow Jones up 0.33%, followed by the S&P 500 up 0.15%. Nasdaq 100 futures are currently trading near flat.
Oil prices decline again
Oil continues its consolidation after the sharp rise from the previous day has largely been reversed. While prices remain elevated, a sustained breakout to the upside has not materialized so far.
The oil market is therefore not confirming the recently increased expectations of escalation, but at the same time is not signaling full relief. Instead, it suggests that market participants still assume limited risks to global oil supply.
Weaker dollar provides support
Oil receives additional support from the currency market. The US dollar is currently weaker, trading against the euro at around 1.1785. A weaker dollar tends to support commodity prices, as oil is traded in US dollars and becomes cheaper for buyers outside the dollar area.
Combined with the currently calm situation in the Persian Gulf, this results in an overall stable environment that supports the cautiously positive market sentiment, without providing a clear all-clear signal.
Gold below 4,800 – crypto market lacks momentum
The gold price remains relatively stable but has fallen back below the 4,800 US dollar mark, currently trading at around 4,790 US dollars per ounce. Despite improved sentiment in stock markets, the metal remains at elevated levels, indicating continued demand for hedging.
Gold is also supported by the weaker US dollar, which further boosts demand. Overall, the development reflects the current market environment: while risk assets benefit from hopes of de-escalation, some market participants remain cautiously positioned.
Bitcoin back above 75,000 US dollars
The crypto market, on the other hand, appears calmer. After recent gains, there is currently a lack of new catalysts.
Bitcoin is currently trading at around 75,501 US dollars, moving back above the 75,000 US dollar level, which has recently acted as resistance. Whether it can sustainably hold above this level will depend on further impulses. The broader crypto market remains largely unchanged, consolidating recent gains in a sideways move.
Rising optimism, but outlook remains uncertain
Market optimism is clearly increasing. The absence of new escalation, the prospect of negotiations, and stable developments in commodity markets are supporting expectations of further easing.
However, a reliable assessment of future developments remains difficult. As long as concrete progress in negotiations is lacking, market sentiment is likely to remain heavily driven by individual news and short-term developments.