The European car registration figures for January 2026 show a mixed picture: While Germany, France and the Netherlands report significant declines, Italy records a gain. The data comes at a time when the European automotive industry is already under pressure – and the renewed looming tariff conflict with the USA is already casting its shadow. Here are the most important figures and possible consequences.
Current Registration Figures at a Glance
According to the figures published yesterday (source: ACEA and national authorities), new registrations in the most important markets developed as follows (y/y):
- Germany: -6.6 % compared to the previous year
- France: -6.6 % compared to the previous year
- Netherlands: -6.2 % compared to the previous year
- Italy: +6.7 % compared to the previous year (the only major gain in Western Europe)
The month-on-month changes (m/m) particularly underline the drama: Germany -21 %, France -39 %, Netherlands -41 %. Italy shows a moderate gain here. Overall in Europe, registrations in January 2026 are thus about 4–5 % below the previous year's level. Particularly weak: Electric and hybrid vehicles in Germany, France and the Netherlands (-18 to -22 %), while pure combustion engines continue to gain in Italy.
Possible Reasons and Consequences for the Automotive Industry
The declines in Germany, France and the Netherlands are not an isolated case, but continue a trend: High energy prices, rising financing costs, reluctance to buy among private customers and weaker corporate business (leasing) are burdening demand. Italy, on the other hand, benefits from state subsidies for combustion engines and a robust used car market that supports new car purchases.
For European manufacturers, this means:
- VW, BMW, Mercedes: Strong dependence on Germany and France → margin pressure and possible production cuts in Wolfsburg, Munich and Stuttgart
- Stellantis: The Italian gain cushions the decline in France somewhat, but overall continues to be under pressure. Stellantis has recently adjusted its strategy again to the actual market (more focus on combustion engines, fewer EV investments), which could prove right in this environment
- Suppliers (Bosch, Continental, ZF): Weakness in Western Europe hits particularly hard
New Tariff Conflict with the USA as an Additional Risk Factor
The current US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs (February 20, 2026) and Trump's announcement to reimpose the tariffs under other laws (currently 15 % globally) are further exacerbating the situation. Should there be another escalation (e.g. 10–25 % tariffs on EU vehicles), German premium manufacturers and Stellantis would be particularly affected. The shares of VW, BMW and Mercedes are already under pressure and could slide further in the event of new negative headlines from Washington. At the same time, gold continues to benefit as a safe haven (currently just below 5,200 USD).
Conclusion
The weak registration figures in the core markets of Germany and France are a clear warning signal for the European automotive industry. The Italian bright spot cannot reverse the overall trend. The looming tariff conflict with the USA is further increasing the risk for the industry. Traders and investors will closely monitor the reactions of automotive stocks (VW, BMW, Mercedes, Stellantis) and the gold price – both could still see movement today.
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