US President Donald Trump's statements (criticism of the dollar exchange rate, new 25% tariff threats against South Korea, implicit Fed criticism) have put the markets in turmoil yesterday evening and this morning. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has slipped significantly (currently 96.2), while reactions in stocks, gold and oil are diverging. The market shows nervousness, but no uniform direction.
Dollar under pressure – the central driver
The DXY has lost about 0.4–0.6 % since Trump's speech. A weaker dollar makes commodities (gold, oil, copper) cheaper for international buyers and at the same time supports riskier assets such as stocks. The combination of dollar criticism and tariff threats has split the market into two camps: safe-haven buyers (gold) and risk chasers (stocks).
Stocks: Slight gains despite uncertainty
S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow are trading sideways to slightly positive (+0.2 to +0.5 %). The markets are interpreting Trump's rhetoric so far as „loud, but not new“ – no concrete new tariff packages, but repetitions. As long as no escalation follows, cyclicals and tech benefit from the dollar weakness. A real breakout to the upside is not yet visible, however.
Gold: New all-time high above $5,300 despite correction attempt
Gold briefly dipped below $5,000 yesterday (low ~$4,980–4,990), but quickly recovered to the resistance at $5,100. After Trump's speech this resistance was overcome and a new all-time high above $5,300 was reached. The dollar weakness clearly dominates here – structural drivers (central bank purchases, geopolitics) keep the price stable.
Oil: Still weak
WTI and Brent are giving way (–0.8 to –1.2 %). The US winter storm has not caused major refinery outages so far, inventories remain high, demand subdued. Oil can only benefit very limitedly from the dollar decline.
Today's Trump speech in focus
Today at 14:30 CET (GMT+1:00): Another speech by Donald Trump is expected – again with high potential for market disruptions (tariffs, Fed, trade policy). Historically, such statements often trigger 1–2 % swings in indices and commodities.
Today at 20:00 CET (GMT+1:00): The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, followed by a press conference at 8:30 p.m. CET (GMT+1:00). If Donald Trump once again launches a sharp attack on the Fed and its chairman today, the press conference could provide clarity on whether the president and the central bank are heading towards an open conflict at an accelerated pace.
Conclusion
The market is moving, but at the same time it is in a holding pattern ahead of Trump and the Fed: the dollar is weak, equities are trending slightly higher, oil remains under pressure and gold is above USD 5,300 in search of its next all-time high. A more accurate assessment of further developments will therefore only be possible after Trump and the Fed. If you want to follow the markets and prices live on your PC or smartphone, you will find a neutral overview of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets here: Trading platform overview.
