The market starts the week cautiously: Japan delivers a clear disappointment with Q4 GDP, European indices are slightly positive amid thin news flow, gold continues to hover around the 5,000 USD mark, and Bitcoin fails again at the 70,000 USD hurdle. The US market is closed today for Presidents' Day, China and large parts of Asia are closed all week for Lunar New Year. Here is a current overview.
Japan: Q4 GDP significantly below expectations – yen weaker, Nikkei slightly recovered
Japan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 2025 disappointed the markets this morning. After a decline of -2.6 % in the previous quarter (y/y), analysts had expected a strong rebound of +1.6 %. In reality, only +0.2 % was reported. Even in the quarter-on-quarter comparison (q/q), the real figure of +0.1 % was well below the expected +0.4 %.
The initial reaction was negative: The yen fell around -0.4 % against the US dollar and -0.35 % against the euro. The Nikkei 225 fell by up to -0.8 % in the first trading hour, but has since recovered slightly and is currently only -0.22 % down. The disappointing figures are fueling doubts about the strength of the Japanese economy and could put further pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) not to tighten its extremely loose monetary policy too quickly.
Europe: Thin news flow – slight gains, IBEX 35 stands out
Amid thin news flow, European indices are slightly positive this morning. DAX +0.2 %, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3 %, CAC 40 +0.25 %. The Spanish IBEX 35 is significantly stronger at currently +0.95 %. The euro is barely moving against the dollar (EUR/USD ~1.185), indicating a lack of impulses. The markets are waiting – the focus is on the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday.
Gold & Bitcoin: Searching for direction – 5,000 USD and 70,000 USD as key levels
Gold briefly fell below the 5,000 USD mark overnight but managed to recover and is currently trading just above it (~5,010–5,020 USD). The strong US dollar and persistently high real yields (10-year Treasury ~4.20–4.24 %) continue to weigh on the yellow metal. At the same time, geopolitical risks and long-term inflation concerns keep the price stable. A clear impulse is missing – many market participants are waiting for the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. A dovish tone could push gold back toward 5,100+ USD; a hawkish tone would increase the pressure.
Bitcoin is behaving similarly: On Sunday, another attempt was made to sustainably break above the 70,000 USD mark – it failed. BTC is currently trading at ~66,800–67,200 USD and is struggling with weak risk sentiment. The strong dollar and reduced rate cut expectations (June ~50 %) are exerting further pressure. Technically, 65,000 USD remains the next important support; a break below could trigger further sales. ETF inflows (BlackRock, Fidelity) are currently providing support, but without a new catalyst, the direction remains unclear.
Outlook: FOMC minutes on Wednesday as hoped-for impulse
Today and tomorrow the markets remain thinly traded: Presidents' Day in the US, Lunar New Year in China and parts of Asia. The next real impulses are not expected until Wednesday at the earliest – in particular the FOMC meeting minutes from the last Fed meeting. Dovish tones (e.g. discussion of earlier rate cuts, concerns about growth or inflation cooling) could trigger risk-on and support gold, stocks and crypto. A continued hawkish stance would further strengthen the dollar and put pressure on risky assets.
Until then, the market remains in „wait-and-see mode“. Anyone who wants to follow the prices live will find a neutral overview here of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets: To the Trading Platform Overview.
