The ceasefire agreed yesterday is already showing signs of fragility, which is once again unsettling markets. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is also still not guaranteed, as we previously reported. These uncertainties are driving oil prices higher again and putting pressure on stock markets.
Risk premium on oil rises again
The fragile ceasefire and the uncertain situation in the Strait of Hormuz have already led to a higher risk premium on oil prices. As a result, US crude WTI has moved back above the 90 US dollar per barrel mark. Currently, WTI is up around 2.25% on the spot market, trading at 93.35 US dollars. Brent crude is also rising, gaining around 1.80%, with a barrel currently priced at 96.00 US dollars.
Stock markets under pressure
Stock markets are once again coming under stronger pressure due to renewed uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Persian Gulf. The possibility of prolonged disruptions to oil supply is fueling concerns about higher costs, particularly in the manufacturing sector. However, rising transport and logistics costs are already placing a significant burden on the services sector as well.
The German benchmark index DAX has given back part of yesterday’s gains. Currently, the index is down 0.95% at 23,781 points. The Euro Stoxx 50 is losing 1.01% and stands at 5,853 points. The French CAC 40 is moving in a similar range, down 0.92% at 8,187 points.
A look at US index futures shows declines in pre-market trading as well, although they remain more moderate so far. Dow Jones futures are currently down 0.30%, S&P 500 futures are off by 0.23%, and Nasdaq 100 futures show the smallest losses at -0.14%.
US dollar weaker, gold price stable
The US dollar had already weakened yesterday due to expectations linked to falling oil prices. While the trend has slowed, it continues today. Against the euro, the US dollar is currently down around 0.15%, with EUR/USD trading at 1.1680. Against the Japanese yen, however, the US currency is gaining about 0.26%, with USD/JPY at 158.90. This means the yen has given back roughly half of its gains from the previous day against the dollar.
The gold price is currently holding near yesterday’s closing level. The precious metal is trading at around 4,742 US dollars per ounce, although it has moved significantly lower from yesterday’s high of 4,857 US dollars.
Bitcoin currently stable above 70,000 US dollars
The crypto market is also being affected by the unclear developments in the Persian Gulf. However, Bitcoin remains relatively stable above the 70,000 US dollar mark and is currently trading at 71,118 US dollars, down 0.78%. Losses are more pronounced for Ethereum, which is down 3.03% and is currently trading at 2,179 US dollars.
Outlook remains uncertain
The outlook for further developments remains largely unclear. The breaches of the ceasefire between Iran and the US have not yet led to a renewed escalation of the conflict. This uncertainty, combined with the unclear situation in the Strait of Hormuz, is likely to keep market participants cautious in what remains a challenging environment.