After a rather disappointing Friday close (S&P 500 –0.6%, Nasdaq –0.9%, Dow –0.4%), the major US indices are showing a slight recovery this Monday (January 26, 2026). Shortly after the open (15:30 CET), the S&P 500 is up around +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.4% and Dow +0.25%. No fireworks, but a clear stabilisation.
ifo Index Disappoints, DAX Ignores
From Germany came a somewhat disappointing impulse this morning: the ifo business climate index fell to 85.5 points (expected 87.0) – the weakest level since November 2024. The DAX has almost completely ignored this and is only slightly in the red (–0.1 to +0.2%).
Durable Goods Orders Significantly Better Than Expected
The US data for December (published today) surprised positively: - **Actual**: +5.3% YoY - **Previous**: –2.1% - **Forecast**: +3.1% This is a strong rebound and signals solid demand for durable goods (machinery, vehicles, electronics). The figure supports the dollar slightly and gives cyclical stocks a lift, while gold comes under a bit of pressure.
Outlook: Stocks Continue Upward, Gold Stable
Short-term bullish for stocks: The significantly better Durable Goods Orders (+5.3% instead of expected +3.1%) have made the US economy appear more robust than feared. This strengthens risk appetite and allows S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow to continue rising – a classic „good data = good mood“ reaction. As long as no negative surprises occur, the recovery could continue.
Gold holds steady: Despite a slightly firmer dollar course (DXY around 103.0–103.1), gold consolidates stably above $5,000. The structural drivers (central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainty) currently outweigh the short-term dollar strength.
The market is waiting for further impulses: Trump statements, Fed speakers or new geopolitical news could set the direction. As long as no negative surprises occur, the slight recovery could continue.
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