Today lacks major impulses: The US market is thinly traded, Asia largely closed (Lunar New Year). From 13:00 CET (7:00 ET), a series of less important data such as durable goods orders, building permits, capacity utilization etc. will be released – in sum they could cause slight movement, especially in combination with the FOMC meeting minutes at 20:00 CET (14:00 ET). Here is a summary of the expected data and an analysis of how the market could react to a hawkish, dovish or neutral FOMC protocol.

The Data from 13:00 CET – Potential for Small Surprises

The day in the US begins with a series of indicators that have relatively low individual impact but in sum shed light on the strength of the US economy. Here are the most important ones and their expectations:

• Durable Goods Orders (14:30 CET): Forecast -1.8 % m/m (previous month +5.3 %). Ex Transportation +0.3 % (previous month +0.4 %). Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air: previous month +0.4 %. A stronger decline could fuel growth concerns, a positive figure would underpin the Fed's „solid economy“ narrative.
• Building Permits (14:30 CET): Forecast 1,420 million (previous month NA). Housing Starts MoM +6.3 %. The real estate market is sensitive to interest rates – weak figures could fuel dovish Fed expectations.
• Capacity Utilization (15:15 CET): Forecast 76.5 % (previous month 76.3 %). Industrial Production (Jan): forecast NA. Higher utilization signals strength and could indicate inflationary pressure.

These data are normally „second tier“, but in the current directionless situation they could cumulatively cause movement: Weak figures fuel rate cut hopes, strong figures support the dollar and pressure risk assets. The market is currently in „wait-and-see mode“ until the FOMC minutes arrive.

The FOMC Minutes at 20:00 CET – The Main Event

The minutes of the January Fed meeting will be published tonight at 20:00 CET. The Fed held rates at 3.5–3.75 %, emphasized a „solid“ economy and paused the easing cycle. The market expects confirmation of the „higher for longer“ scenario, but with nuances: Discussions about the neutral rate, inflation spikes from tariffs and growth risks could color the tone dovish or hawkish. The CME FedWatch Tool shows ~90 % probability of hold in March, ~50 % for cut in June. The minutes will be scanned for hints whether the pause is long or short – especially ahead of the switch to Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair in May.

Analysis: How the Market Could React to Hawkish, Dovish or Neutral Minutes

Taking into account today's data (e.g. weak durable goods could amplify growth concerns, strong capacity utilization could indicate inflationary pressure), the minutes could move the market in three scenarios:

• Hawkish Minutes (e.g. „elevated inflation“, higher neutral rate, no quick cuts): Strengthens the US dollar (DXY +0.5–1 %), euro/USD could fall (below 1.18). Indices could come under pressure (S&P 500, Nasdaq) -0.5–1 %, DAX -0.3–0.7 % and gold below 5,000 USD, Bitcoin below 65,000 USD. Stronger US data today would reinforce this.
• Dovish Minutes (e.g. growth concerns, tariffs as „one-time“ impact, earlier cuts discussed): Risk-On – dollar could weaken (DXY -0.5 %), euro/USD +0.3–0.5 %. Indices +0.5–1 %, tech (Nasdaq) +1–1.5 %. Gold +50–100 USD, Bitcoin +2–4 %. Weak US data today would fuel this.
• Neutral Minutes (e.g. „balanced risks“, pause confirmed, no new signals): Little movement – market likely remains flat (indices ±0.2 %, dollar stable). Gold/Bitcoin continue to hover on direction search. The sum of today's data then decides the direction, but without surprises it remains directionless.

Conclusion

The market is likely to remain directionless until the FOMC minutes, but the sum of today's data could set small impulses. A hawkish Fed protocol could create pressure, a dovish one bring recovery. Anyone who wants to follow the assets and their prices live will find a neutral overview here of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets: To the Trading Platform Overview.