Today's US labor market data (Nonfarm Payrolls) came in significantly stronger than expected: 130,000 new jobs (vs. 66,000 expected), private payrolls +172,000 (145 % above forecast), unemployment rate surprisingly dropped to 4.3 %. Nevertheless, the market reaction remains very muted: The US dollar gains clearly, indices give back moderately, gold and Bitcoin hold up remarkably stable. Is this unusual – or actually within the green zone? Here is a current assessment.
NFP Figures at a Glance
The January data clearly exceed expectations overall:
- Nonfarm Payrolls: +130,000 (expected +66,000)
- Private Payrolls: +172,000 (expected +70,000)
- Unemployment rate: 4.3 % (expected stable at 4.4 %)
- Hourly earnings: +3.7 % YoY (slightly above expectation)
The massive downward revisions of previously reported jobs (almost 900,000 fewer jobs than originally reported) relativize the beat, however. The monthly average in 2025 was only +15,000 instead of +49,000 – this shows: The labor market was weaker than thought. January appears as an exception, not as a new trend.
Market Reaction: Dollar Strong, Rest Muted
The US dollar (DXY +0.8–1.0 %) is the clear winner – higher rates for longer, real yields rising (10-year +10–12 bp to ~4.22–4.24 %). Indices give back moderately after the initial euphoria: S&P 500 -0.4 to -0.7 %, Nasdaq -0.8 to -1.1 %, Dow Jones Industrial holding up better. Gold remains just above $5,000 (currently ~$5,018–5,025), Bitcoin stagnates further at ~$66,200 (-4 to -5 %).
Why No Classic “Strong Data = Risk-Off” Reaction?
At first glance, the market reactions appear unusual, but several factors explain this unusually muted response:
- Revisions weigh heavier than the January beat: The market sees 2025 as weaker – January currently looks like an outlier, not a real trend reversal. Long-term this would be rather dovish if not confirmed next month.
- Geopolitics & Safe-Haven Buying: Ukraine, Middle East, Taiwan concerns keep gold stable as a hedge. Dips are reflexively bought.
- Technical Support at Gold: $5,000 is a gigantic round number + massive call wall (options strikes). Gamma support and institutional buying catch the decline.
- Crypto as High-Beta Suffers More: BTC reacts more sensitively to rising real yields and dollar strength – no yield, high risk → clear decline.
- Fed Remains “Higher for Longer”: Rate cut probability for June drops to ~45–50 %. This pressures tech/rate-sensitive sectors, but supports banks/financials (sector rotation).
Conclusion
The reaction to the strong NFP beat is unusually muted: The US dollar benefits clearly, indices give back moderately, gold and Bitcoin hold up remarkably stable. This is due to the massive revisions (2025 weaker than thought), geopolitical uncertainty and technical factors at gold. The market does not seem to rate January as a new trend – rather as an outlier in an overall cooling environment. Until the CPI data on Friday, much will likely remain in “waiting mode”. Anyone who wants to follow the current prices and further developments live will find a neutral overview here of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets: To the Trading Platform Overview.
