The market is showing a mixed picture this morning: Asia closes with clear gains (Nikkei +2.2 %), Europe is trending negative despite positive lead (DAX -0.32 %, CAC 40 -0.41 %), and US indices are moving rather sideways in pre-market. The focus is on the postponed NFP data at 14:30 CET – until then, much remains in waiting mode. Here is a current overview.
Asia Closes Strongly Positive
The Asian markets ended the week with clear gains: The Nikkei 225 rises +2.2 % and marks new highs, supported by the ongoing “Takaichi-Trade” sentiment following the government party's election victory. The Hang Seng gains moderately +0.31 %, Shanghai Composite +0.49 %. Sentiment in Asia remains risk-on, driven by reform hopes in Japan and slight recovery in China. This actually sets positive lead for Europe and the US.
Europe Turns Negative
Despite the strong Asia lead, Europe is trending negative: The DAX loses -0.32 %, the CAC 40 -0.41 %, the Euro Stoxx 50 is also weakening. Sentiment is subdued – the weak dollar (EUR/USD at 1.191) helps exporters only to a limited extent, while the markets wait for the NFP data. Sector rotation visible: Tech and cyclicals weak, defensive (utilities, health) holding up better. The market does not seem to really buy the Asia gains – uncertainty ahead of the US labor market data is too great.
US Futures Sideways to Slightly Negative Before NFP
US futures are showing rather flat to slightly negative in pre-market: S&P 500 Futures -0.1 to -0.3 %, Dow Futures slightly positive or neutral, Nasdaq weaker. The market is nervously waiting for the NFP data (postponed due to shutdown, expected 70,000 new jobs, unemployment rate stable). A stronger than expected report could support the dollar and further pressure tech; weaker than expected would fuel rate cut hopes. Until 14:30 CET, much remains in “waiting mode”.
Possible Triggers for the Eventless Morning
In a flat market, it is worth working out the possible triggers: The weak dollar supports gold and exporters, but yesterday's weak retail sales (0.0 % instead of +0.4 %) signal cooling – this could favor rate cuts. Sector rotation (tech weak, defensive stronger) and NFP expectation keep the market in check. A breakout up or down is only likely after 14:30 CET.
Conclusion
The market is mixed this morning: Asia strong, Europe weak, US pre-market flat – all are waiting for the NFP data. The coming hours could remain eventless but offer opportunities to work out triggers such as rate cut hopes or sector rotation. Anyone who wants to follow all prices live will find a neutral overview here of established platforms that cover almost the entire range of assets: To the Trading Platform Overview.